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Throwing the Bum Out: When Should Scandal-Hit Politicians Stage a Come Back?

As Anthony Weiner enters the New York mayoral race two years after scandal forced him from office, a new study in Social Science Quarterlyexplores the lingering effect of scandals and asks how long a politician need wait before hitting the come-back trail.

Using research into ‘brand crisis’ this study is the first systematic test of the idea that scandals can linger in voters’ minds and damage a politician’s reelection campaign. The authors find evidence that this lingering effect ensures politicians do not return to their pre-scandal predicted margins of victory until four to six years after the event.

Voter turnout was also found to increase following a scandal, but rather than an increase in votes for the incumbent, this was linked to the voters’ desire to ‘kick the bum out.’

However, if a politician succeeds in surviving a reelection bid despite a scandal, they can expect to recover two-thirds of their support within one cycle, moving them out of the ‘danger zone’ into which their scandal pushed them.