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Factions, Reactions and the Closure of Attractions: Explaining the Federal Shutdown
As congressional deadlock shuts down the federal government for the first time in seventeen years, Rick Wilson, editor of the American Journal of Political Science, places the shutdown in context, and Public Administration Review Editor-in-Chief James L. Perry presents his selection of research papers to explain the state of the union’s budget problems.
Interview: Dr. Rick K. Wilson, Editor, American Journal of Political Science
Dr. Rick Wilson is a political scientist whose work has focused on political history and the design of political institutions, especially the U.S. Congress. Wilson teaches courses on the U.S. congress, common property resources and evolutionary psychology.
The big question: How long do you believe this will last? Is the political situation similar to the shutdown during the Clinton administration, which lasted 3 weeks?
I wish that I had a magic ball that could answer this. This may be a short shutdown because the Continuing Resolution (CR) is designed to go through November 15. This is designed to give Congress some breathing room to get actual spending bills passed. It may also be quite short because Congress faces a more ominous problem which is extending the debt ceiling. This will be a more serious fiscal fight.
This is the first shutdown since 1995; however the U.S experienced 17 such shutdowns between 1977 and 1995. So is this truly a crisis or is it simply a return to political norm of the 1980’s?
It is not really a return to the norm of the 1980s. Because of problems with the budget process, major set of reforms were implemented in that period to bring some sanity to the budget process. Unfortunately those reforms have not persisted. It is more likely these days to see a CR used to provide stopgap spending. The difference now is that there is a well-protected, large, faction in the House that exercises a veto right over legislation. They have little experience with government and they have strong ideological beliefs about the implications of a shutdown. They do not see it as disruptive.
CNN reports that congress has hit 87% of disapproval ratings, a historic low. What impact could this have electorally? Is further disillusionment and political disengagement the most likely outcome, or will we see a rise of more radical candidates come the next election?
Congress's disapproval ratings have been in this range for the past three or so years. While this is a historic low, the polls have shown that the approval rating has been hovering around 14 percent for some time. Given that there are few competitive districts that remain in the US (which is a result of carefully drawn districts that coincide with population migration and the widespread use of first-past the post primary systems). It might be that there is increased polarization between the parties in the next election. It is important to remember that while citizens dislike Congress, they love their Congressman. So it is unlikely that many incumbents will be thrown out for more extreme candidates. At the same time, this doesn't bode well for electing moderates.
The Democrats and the GOP are both trying to avoid blame, but how successful do you think they will be? Will Republicans shoulder the blame, as in 1996, or will the Tea Party’s message that Washington doesn't work, resonate even more with voters?
Good question. It might well be that the Tea Party message doesn't resonate at all with voters. If the shutdown extends into three or four weeks, citizens will begin to feel the effects. So far there is little impact on voters, the planes run on time, the military is operational, the astronauts were not recalled from the space station. But when there are noticeable effects in standard government services (backing small business loans, getting a passport, etc.) then the blame may come back to haunt the GOP.
The President has warned that the economic impact of a shutdown could be immediate. Do you think this will impact the U.S economic recovery in the long-term and will it have international consequences?
The impact will be "soft" in the sense that it will take a few weeks. The President is using a rhetorical device. The more daunting problem is what effect will the fight over the debt ceiling have for the International market? This is where you might see serious effects.
The American Journal of Political Science (AJPS) publishes research in all major areas of political science including American politics, public policy, international relations, comparative politics, political methodology, and political theory. Founded in 1956, the AJPS publishes articles that make outstanding contributions to scholarly knowledge about notable theoretical concerns, puzzles or controversies in any subfield of political science.
URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1540-5907
Public Administration Review:
PAR Editor-in-Chief James L. Perry selects the following papers to explain the reasons why the federal budget process has come to its current state.
•The Duty to Take Care: President Obama, Public Administration, and the Capacity to Govern
Phillip J. Cooper:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2010.02302.x/full?campaign=wlytk-41549.4241203704
•Federal Government Reform: Lessons from Clinton’s “Reinventing Government” and Bush’s “Management Agenda” Initiatives
Jonathan D. Breul and John M. Kamensky.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2008.00950.x/full?campaign=wlytk-41549.4241203704
•Federalist No. 30: What Is to Be Done About the Federal Budget?
Paul L. Posner.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2011.02462.x/full?campaign=wlytk-41549.4241203704
•The “Ball of Confusion” in Federal Budgeting: A Shadow Agenda for Deliberative Reform of the Budget Process
Roy T. Meyers
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2008.01967.x/full?campaign=wlytk-41549.4241203704
•The Executive Budget in the Federal Government: The First Century and Beyond
Roy T. Meyers and Irene S. Rubin.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2011.02351.x/full?campaign=wlytk-41549.4241203704
Public Administration Review (PAR), a bi-monthly professional journal, has been the premier journal in the field of public administration research, theory, and practice for more than 60 years. It is published for the American Society for Public Administration,TM/SM and is the only journal in public administration that serves both academics and practitioners interested in the public sector and public sector management. Articles identify and analyze current trends, provide a factual basis for decision making, stimulate discussion, and make the leading literature in the field available in an easily accessible format. With lively book reviews and a wide range of topics, PAR is exciting to read and an indispensable resource. With articles on a wide range of topics and expert book reviews, PAR is exciting to read and an indispensable resource
URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1540-6210
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