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Business Cycles: History, Theory and Investment Reality, 3rd Edition

ISBN: 978-0-470-01806-4
502 pages
May 2006
Business Cycles: History, Theory and Investment Reality, 3rd Edition (0470018062) cover image


This entertaining book describes the global history of economic fluctuations and business cycle theory over more than 300 years. It explains the core of the problem and shows how cycles can be forecast and how they are managed by central banks. The book concludes with detailed studies of how sub-sectors of stocks, bonds, hedge funds, private equity funds, gold, exchange rates, real estate, commodities, art and collectibles fluctuate over different categories of business cycles.
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Table of Contents

List of Figures and Tables.


Part I: The First Economists.

1. Gambling Man.

2. Cash Payment.

3. The Dream Team of Money.

4. The Napoleon of Finance.

5. Jay and Phantom Gold.

6. Seven Pioneers.

Part II: The First Business Cycle Theories.

7. The Golden Age.

8. The Archeologists.

9. Fisher and Babson. 

10. Keynes and the Austrians.

11. The Great Depression.

12. Lover, Horseman, Economist.

13. The Problem with Money.

Part III: A Hidden World.

14. The Simulators.

15. Brains of Steel.

16. Fat Tails and All That.

17. Monkey See, Monkey Do.

18. Dot Bomb.

Part IV: The Essence.

19. The State of the Art.

20. Two Questions.

21. The Five Main Drivers of Cycles.

22. The Ten Challenges of Central Banking.

Part V: Business Cycles and Asset Prices.

23. The Mother of All Cycles: Property.

24. When Art was In.

25. All That Glitters.

26. What Things are Made of: Commodities.

27 Bonds, Stocks and Funds.

28. The World’s Biggest Market: Foreign Exchange.

29. Business Cycles and Market Rotation.

Afterword: The Beat of the Heart.

Appendix 1: List of Important Events in Business Cycle Theory.

Appendix 2: List of the Largest Financial Crises in History.

Chapter Notes.



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Author Information

Lars Tvede, a Danish national, holds a master’s degree in Engineering and a Bachelor’s degree in international commerce. He spent 11 years as derivatives trader, portfolio manager and investment banker before moving to the telecommunication and software industries in the mid 1990s, where he co-founded and seed-funded a number high-tech companies. He returned to the financial industry at the start of 2005 to become general partner and fund manager in the Swiss hedge fund company Provalue (www.provalue.ch). Lars Tvede has published several books on general economics, marketing, telecommunication and trading, including his best-selling The Psychology of Finance, which has been translated to all major languages. He now lives Zug, Switzerland.   
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