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Stephen Roach on the Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization

ISBN: 978-0-470-44699-7
414 pages
September 2009
Stephen Roach on the Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization (0470446994) cover image
As Morgan Stanley's chief Asia specialist, getting Asia right is Stephen Roach's personal obsession, and this in-depth compilation represents more than 70 of Roach's key research efforts not just on Asia, but also on how the region fits into the broad context of increasingly globalized financial markets. The book argues that the "Asia factor" is not a static concept, but rather one that is constantly changing and evolving. Broken down into five parts–Asia's critical role in globalization; the coming rebalancing of the Chinese economy; a new pan-regional framework for integration and competition; and a frank discussion of the biggest risk to this remarkable transformation–this book will help readers understand and profit from the world's most dynamic region.
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Acknowledgments.

Introduction.

CHAPTER 1 A WORLD IN CRISIS.

A Subprime Outlook for the Global Economy.

Save the Day.

Coping with a Different Recession.

Davos Diary: 2008.

Double Bubble Trouble.

Even When the Worst Is Over—Watch Out for Aftershocks.

Pitfalls in a Postbubble World.

Panic of 2008: Enough Scapegoating.

Global Fix for a Global Crisis.

Changing the Fed’s Policy Mandate.

An Early Leadership Opportunity for Barack Obama.

Dying of Consumption.

Uncomfortable Truths about Our World after the Bubble.

A Postbubble Global Business Cycle.

America’s Japan Syndrome.

Whither Capitalism?

After the Era of Excess.

Same Old, Same Old.

Depression Foil.

CHAPTER 2 THE GLOBALIZATION DEBATE.

Open Macro.

The Battleground of Globalization.

The Global Delta.

Beggars Can’t Be Choosers.

Perils of a Different Globalization.

Bad Advice and a New Global Architecture.

Doha Doesn’t Matter.

Global Speed Trap.

Hitting a BRIC Wall?

Global Comeback—First Japan, Now Germany.

Labor versus Capital.

Global Lessons.

From Globalization to Localization.

Unprepared for Globalization.

The Currency Foil.

The Shifting Mix of Global Saving.

CHAPTER 3 CHINESE REBALANCING.

China’s Rebalancing Challenge.

A Commodity-Lite China.

Scale and the Chinese Policy Challenge.

China’s Great Contradiction.

Soft Landing Made in China?

The Great Chinese Profits Debate.

China Goes for Quality.

Heavy Lifting.

Two Birds with One Stone.

Unstable, Unbalanced, Uncoordinated, and Unsustainable.

China’s Global Challenge.

Consumer-Led Growth for China.

China’s Macro Imperatives.

Manchurian Paradox.

CHAPTER 4 PAN-ASIAN CHALLENGES.

The Next Asia.

Rebalancing Made in Japan?

From Beijing to Dubai.

A Tale of Two Asias.

Kim’s Boost to Globalization.

Japan’s Missing Link.

India on the Move.

The Cranes of Dubai.

Asian Decoupling Unlikely.

The Korea Test.

Asia’s Policy Trap.

Complacency Asian Style.

The End of the Beginning.

Another Asian Wake-Up Call.

India’s Virtuous Cycle.

Risks of an Asian Relapse.

CHAPTER 5 U.S.-CHINA TENSIONS.

A Slippery Slope.

Past the Point of No Return.

Debating U.S.-China Trade Policy.

Who’s Subsidizing Whom?

Protectionist Threats—Then and Now.

The Ghost of Reed Smoot.

China’s Pace, America’s Angst.

The Politics of Trade Frictions.

A Wake-Up Call for the United States and China:.

Stress Testing a Symbiotic Relationship.

Afterword.

Sources.

About the Author.

Index.

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Stephen S. Roach has been a thought leader on Wall Street for over thirty years. Currently the Hong Kong based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, for the bulk of his career he served as the firm's chief economist, heading up a highly regarded team of economists around the world. His recent research on globalization, the emergence of China and India, and the capital market implications of global imbalances has appeared widely in the international media and in testimony before the U.S. Congress. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 1982, he worked in senior capacities at Morgan Guaranty Trust Company and the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C. He holds a PhD in economics from New York University and was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is a jet-lagged resident of multiple time zones, splitting his time between eight Asian countries and his family home in Connecticut.
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"As Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and a renowned economist, Stephen Roach has a solid macroeconomics background, in-depth understanding of the region, rich knowledge of various industries, and an open mind. In this book, Steve vividly describes the changes of Asia -- and the driving forces behind those changes。Furthermore, he brilliantly points out the challenges Asia is facing, as well as its impacts on the global economy. Asia is reshaping the global economy in this post-crisis world, and I believe this book provides us with unique insights as to how this reshaping is playing out."
Dr. Zhu Min, Group Executive Vice President, Bank of China

"Stephen Roach has for many years been a uniquely independent voice among international economic commentators. He was one of the few who warned that the debt-fuelled 'casino' economy was unsustainable. His prophetic warnings came to pass in 2008. In his latest book he issues another warning. Asia's explosive growth has been based on a 'bet' upon deep integration with the global economy. Stephen Roach argues that this growth is unsustainable in the face of the global recession. The region needs comprehensively to re-balance its economic model if it is to maintain its remarkable growth. He warns that this will not be easy. Stephen Roach's book is essential reading for those who hold the comfortable belief that Asia has 'de-coupled' from the world economy."
Prof Peter Nolan, CBE, Sinyi Professor, Judge Business School, and Chair, Development Studies, University of Cambridge, UK

"Stephen Roach’s prescient collection of insights and analyses, from his many years in Asia as one of the most experienced decoders of China’s political and economic trends, are cogent, valuable, and immensely helpful."
—Henry A. Kissinger

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November 13, 2009
STEPHEN ROACH ON THE NEXT ASIA: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR A NEW GLOBALIZATION

Written by Stephen S. Roach, Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, “The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization peers into the future of the world’s most dynamic region and will help readers understand the economic imperatives of Asia and how it will shape the world economy.

The Next Asia provides a timely assessment of the region’s potential to provide a new source of growth for a post-crisis global economy. Roach points out that many have presumed that the baton of economic leadership has already passed from the West to the East, heralding the onset of the Asian Century. If it were only that easy! The current Asia remains very much an export machine, with auxiliary fuel provided by capital investment. It’s a supply-oriented growth model that leaves Asia heavily dependent on external demand from others. Roach argues in this book that the region can lead — if and only if it becomes better balanced, drawing increased support from internal private consumption. Notwithstanding the tensions of the globalization debate and the risks of US-China trade frictions, The Next Asia makes the case for this daunting transition.

Featuring more than 70 of Roach’s essays, the book has five critical building blocks: The world after the financial crisis; Asia’s critical role in globalization; the upcoming rebalancing of the Chinese economy; a new pan-regional framework for integration and competition; and a frank discussion of the biggest risk to this remarkable transformation in the form of US-China trade tensions.

“Change and growth have been the mantra for Asia for the past quarter century. But the current global recession is an important wake-up call for Asia” said Stephen Roach at a book launch event for The Next Asia on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Dalian, PRC. “This crisis is in effect a challenge to the old way, and a not-so-subtle hint to find a new recipe for Asia’s growth model – one that is better balanced, more stable, coordinated, integrated and sustainable. This is the essence of a critical transformation that could well usher in more of a pro-consumption, lighter, and greener Asian economy than is the case today. The Next Asia will need to measure its success increasingly on those counts.”

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