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Spacecraft Reliability and Multi-State Failures: A Statistical Approach

ISBN: 978-0-470-68791-8
216 pages
March 2011
Spacecraft Reliability and Multi-State Failures: A Statistical Approach (0470687916) cover image
The aerospace community has long recognized and repeatedly emphasizes the importance of reliability for space systems. Despite this, little has been published in book form on the topic. Spacecraft Reliability and Multi-state Failures addresses this gap in the literature, offering a unique focus on spacecraft reliability based on extensive statistical analysis of system and subsystem anomalies and failures.

The authors provide new results pertaining to spacecraft reliability based on extensive statistical analysis of on-orbit anomaly and failure data that will be particularly useful to spacecraft manufacturers and designers, for example in guiding satellite (and subsystem) test and screening programs and providing an empirical basis for subsystem redundancy and reliability growth plans. The authors develop nonparametric results and parametric models of spacecraft and spacecraft subsystem reliability and multi-state failures, quantify the relative contribution of each subsystem to the failure of the satellites thus identifying the subsystems that drive spacecraft unreliability, and propose advanced stochastic modeling and analysis tools for the reliability and survivability of spacecraft and space-based networks.

Spacecraft Reliability and Multi-state Failures

  • provides new nonparametric results pertaining to spacecraft reliability based on extensive statistical analysis of on-orbit anomaly and failure data;
  • develops parametric models of spacecraft and spacecraft subsystem reliability and multi-state failures
  • quantifies the relative contribution of each subsystem to the failure of the satellites
  • proposes advanced stochastic modeling and analysis tools for the reliability and survivability of spacecraft and space-based networks.
  • provides a dedicated treatment of the reliability and subsystem anomalies of communication spacecraft in geostationary orbit.
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1 On time, reliability, and spacecraft.

1.1 On time and reliability.

1.2 On spacecraft and reliability: early studies.

1.3 Book organization.

2 Nonparametric reliability analysis of spacecraft failure data.

2.1 Introduction.

2.2 Database and data description.

2.3 Nonparametric analysis of spacecraft failure data.

2.4 Confidence interval analysis.

2.5 Discussion and limitation.

2.A Appendix.

3 Parametric analysis and Weibull modeling of spacecraft reliability.

3.1 Weibull distribution: an overview.

3.2 Probability plots or graphical estimation.

3.3 Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE).

3.4 Comparative analysis of the spacecraft reliability parametric fits.

3.5 Finite mixture distributions.

3.6 Comparative analysis of the single versus the mixture distribution Weibull fits.

4 Data specialization: statistical analysis of spacecraft reliability by orbit and mass categories.

4.1 Introduction.

4.2 Data description and mass categorization.

4.3 Nonparametric analysis of satellite reliability by mass category.

4.4 Parametric analysis of satellite reliability by mass category.

4.5 Orbit characterization.

4.6 Nonparametric analysis of spacecraft reliability by mass and orbit category.

4.7 Parametric analysis of satellite reliability by mass and orbit category.

4.8 Hypotheses for causal explanations.

4.A Appendix: Tabular data and confidence interval analysis.

5 Spacecraft subsystem reliability.

5.1 Spacecraft subsystem identification.

5.2 Nonparametric reliability analysis of spacecraft subsystems.

5.3 Weibull modeling of spacecraft subsystem reliability.

5.4 Comparative analysis of subsystem failures.

6 Time to anomaly and failure of spacecraft subsystems: exploratory data analysis.

6.1 Introduction.

6.2 Anomaly and failure events.

6.3 Distribution of anomalies and failure events by subsystem.

6.4 Time to anomaly and failure of spacecraft subsystems.

7 Multi-state failure analysis of spacecraft subsystems.

7.1 Introduction.

7.2 Setting the stage: multi-state failure analysis and the state transition diagram.

7.3 Nonparametric analyses of spacecraft subsystems' multi-state failures.

7.4 Parametric analyses of spacecraft subsystems' multi-state failures.

7.5 Comparative reliability and multi-state failure analysis of spacecraft subsystems.

7.A Appendix.

8 Toward survivability analysis of spacecraft and space-based networks.

8.1 Introduction.

8.2 Overview of survivability and resiliency.

8.3 Survivability framework.

8.4 Introduction to SPNs.

8.5 SPNs for spacecraft modeling and survivability analysis.

8.A Appendix: SPN model of the SBN in Figure 8.6 and its schematic explanation.

Epilogue.

Appendix A Geosynchronous communication. satellites: system reliability and subsystem anomalies and failures.

A.1 Part I: System reliability analysis.

A.2 Part II: Subsystem anomalies and failures.

Appendix B Electrical power subsystem: comparative analysis of failure events in LEO and GEO.

B.1 Introduction.

B.2 Database, sample analyzed, and classes of failure events.

B.3 Brief literature review.

B.4 Reliability and multi-state failure analyses of the EPS.

B.5 Comparative analysis of the EPS failure in LEO and GEO.

B.6 Conclusion.

References.

Index.

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