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Wireless Foresight: Scenarios of the Mobile World in 2015

ISBN: 978-0-470-85815-8
246 pages
October 2003
Wireless Foresight: Scenarios of the Mobile World in 2015 (047085815X) cover image
Wireless Foresight deals with the development of the wireless communications industry and technology during the coming ten to fifteen years. Telecommunications is a global business of enormous proportions and is one of the largest industries in the world.

Written in a highly accessible and simple to read manner, this book is based around four scenarios of the wireless world in 2015. The focus is on the industry (i.e. infrastructure and terminal vendors, operators, and service developers and providers) as well as on new players.

  • Discusses the long-term developments described in the four scenarios and also short term issues, for example the challenges facing industry.
  • Uncovers important areas for technological research and discusses the critical challenges facing industry, for example; the high cost for infrastructure, the slow spectrum release, the stampeding system complexity, radiation, battery capacity, and the threat of a disruptive market change facing the telecommunications industry.
  • Offers a global approach whereby developments from around the world are described.
  • Employs the method of building full-scale scenarios as opposed to just identifying trends and making predictions.

Wireless Foresight is an invaluable and provocative read for top and middle management, strategists, business developers, technology managers, and entrepreneurs in the telecom, datacom and infocom industries alike. It is also of great interest to financial analysts and academics.

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Preface.

1. Introduction.

The Wireless Industry at a Crossroads.

Be prepared for 2015.

Scenarios of the Wireless World of 2015.

Challenges for the Future.

Creating Scenarios.

Guide to the book.

PART I: SCENARIOS.

2. Wireless Explosion – Creative Destruction.

A Sunny Berlin day in 2015.

The Wireless Scene in 2015.

3. Slow Motion.

Ordinary Life in Stockholm and Business Life in Shanghai.

The Wireless Scene in 2015.

Wireless Technology in 2015.

4. Rediscovering Harmony.

A Weekday Morning in a Small Scandinavian Village.

The Wireless Scene in 2015.

Wireless Technology in 2015.

5. Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments.

Early April morning, Green Haven Gated Community, New York, US.

The Wireless Scene in 2015.

Wireless Technology in 2015.

PART II: DRIVERS OF DEVELOPMENT AND TECHNOLOGICAL IMPLICATIONS.

6. Trends and Fundamental Drivers.

Fourteen Trends Shaping the Scenarios.

Fundamental Drivers.

Theories Supporting Fundamental Drivers.

7. Technological Conclusions from Scenarios.

System Technology in 2015.

Mobile Terminals in 2015.

Mobile Services in 2015.

Part III – Challenges for the Future.

8. Challenges for Technical Research.

Low Cost Infrastructures and Services.

Seamless Mobility.

New and Advanced Services.

Usability and  Human-Machine Interface.

Health and Environment.

A Need for Cross-disciplinary Research.

9. Challenges for the Wireless Industry.

Introduction.

The Challenges.

10. Challenges for Key Regions.

US.

Europe.

China.

Japan and South Korea.

Part IV – Moving Into the Future With Scenarios.

11. Scenario Thinking and Scenario Making.

Logics of Scenario Creation.

Making our Scenarios.

Other Studies About the Future.

12. Summary and Concluding Remarks.

The Book in Brief.

Moving into the Future.

Appendix A: User Segments.

Appendix B: Wireless Foresight at Wireless@KTH.

Glossary.

References.

Author Biographies.

Index.

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Bo Karlson is Wireless@KTH's director of external relations and general manager. He was the manager of the Wireless Foresight project. Karlson holds a Ph.D. in industrial management from the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH). Before joining Wireless@KTH, he was assistant professor in the Department for Industrial Economics and Management at KTH. His areas of expertise include project management. Organizational theory, business models, industrial development, and research methodology.

Aurelian Bria is currently pursuing a Ph.D. in the Department of Signals, Sensors and Systems at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Stockholm. He received his M.Sc. degree in electrical engineering from the Politehnica University of Bucharest, Romania, in 1989. In autumn 2000 he joined the Swedish strategic research program Personal computing and Communication (PCC), starting his research in the field of wireless infrastructure.

Peter Lönnquist holds an M.Sc. degree in psychology and in 2001 he became a Ph.D. student at the Swedish Graduate School for Human-Machine Interaction. Formerly a member of the Human-Computer Interaction and Language Engineering Laboratory at the Swedish Institute of Computer Science (SICS), he now does research in the design and evaluation of ubiquitous service environments and “the disappearing computer” in the FUSE group at the Department of Computer and Systems Sciences of the IT-University in Kista.

Cristian Norlin holds an M.A. in interaction design from the Royal College of Art in London. He also holds a B.Sc. in multimedia education and technology from Stockholm University. Based in Stockholm, he is working as a consultant focusing on human-computer interaction in areas of concept development, interface design for digital technologies and products, and user-centered development processes.

Jonas Lind is a researcher at the center for Information and Communications Research (CIC) at Stockholm School of Economics, where his research focus is structural changes during the life cycle of the IT and telecom industry. Before rejoining academia, he was a strategy consultant in an internet consulting firm and a senior advisor at Telia headquarters. Lind holds an M.Sc. in engineering and an Econ. Lic. Degree in business administration.

 

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"The book provides good food for thought and should prove inspiring for anyone in the industry…"(IEE  Communications Engineer, February 2004)
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