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Far from Random: Using Investor Behavior and Trend Analysis to Forecast Market Movement

ISBN: 978-0-470-88539-0
256 pages
May 2010
Far from Random: Using Investor Behavior and Trend Analysis to Forecast Market Movement (0470885394) cover image
Since Burton Malkiel’s seminal work A Random Walk Down Wall Street was published, the financial world has swallowed whole the idea that market movement is chaotic and random.

In Far from Random, Richard Lehman uses behavior-based trend analysis to debunk Malkiel’s random walk theory. Lehman demonstrates that the market has discernible trends that are foreseeable. By learning to spot these trends, investors and traders can predict market movement to boost returns in anything from equities to 401(k) accounts.

Richard Lehman has been a financial professional for more than thirty years. He studied the first iterations of behavioral finance back in the 1970s as a financial marketer and has since worked in various facets of the financial industry. His early introduction to behavioral finance and the more recent introduction to trend analysis led him to this important discovery.

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Foreword (Lawrence G. McMillan).

Acknowledgments.

Preface.

Introduction.

PART I A Market of What?

1  The Time Has Come.

2 Fundamentally Flawed.

3 Subjective Value.

4 Random and Efficient Markets.

5 Market Timing.

PART II Behavior, Behavior, Behavior.

6 New Thinking in Finance Isn’t Financial.

7 The Behavioral Phenomenon.

8 Anomalies.

PART III Charting a Golden Path.

9 A New Market Paradigm.

10 Introduction to Trend Channel Analysis.

11 Reading Between the Lines.

12 Putting It All Together.

Index.

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Richard Lehman is the coauthor of New Insights on Covered Call Writing, with Lawrence McMillan (Bloomberg Press, 2003). Lehman is an instructor of both finance and derivatives at UC Berkeley Extension and a vice president in the wealth management group at Mechanics Bank in Richmond, California. His financial career spans more than thirty years in product management, marketing, and investment management, beginning with an eleven-year stint on Wall Street with E. F. Hutton, Thomson McKinnon, and the New York Stock Exchange. He lives in Richmond, CA.
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