Wiley
Wiley.com
Print this page Share

Risk Assessment: Tools, Techniques, and Their Applications

ISBN: 978-0-470-89203-9
416 pages
July 2012
Risk Assessment: Tools, Techniques, and Their Applications (047089203X) cover image

All the tools needed to perform a thorough risk assessment—whether you're working in insurance, forensics, engineering, or public safety

Risk analysis is the method of analyzing the dangers to individuals, businesses, and government agencies posed by potential natural and man-made hazards. The central task of the risk assessor is predicting the success of a project. This includes isolating the entire spectrum of adverse events that can derail a project or threaten the health and safety of individuals, organizations, and the environment.

Designed as a practical, in-the-field toolkit, Risk Assessment details every aspect of how a risk assessment is performed, showing the proper tool to be used at various steps in the process, as well as locating the tool that best fits the risk assessment task at hand. Examining not only the very nature of risks and consequences, with fascinating historical examples, the book progresses from simple to more complex risk assessment techniques used by the authors in their daily work, all presented in a form that can be readily adapted to any number of real-life situations:

  • Ecological Risk Assessment

  • Task Analysis Techniques

  • Preliminary Hazards Analysis

  • Failure Mode and Effects Analysis

  • Human Reliability Analysis

  • Critical Incident Technique

With numerous industry-specific case studies, as well as additional case studies for risk assessments for a restaurant and a process plant, the book provides readers with complete examples of how each of the techniques can be used in a variety of real-world situations. Including downloadable worksheets and other useful assessment materials, as well as guidance on using PRA software, this unparalleled reference offers all the tools and techniques needed to conduct a thorough and accurate assessment of risk.

See More

List of Figures xiii

List of Tables xvii

Acknowledgments xxi

1 Introduction to Risk Assessment 1

1.1 Terminology, 6

1.2 Performing Risk Assessments, 6

1.3 Risk Assessment Team, 7

1.3.1 Team Approach, 7

1.3.2 Team Representatives, 10

References, 11

2 Risk Perception 13

2.1 Knowledge Level, 15

References, 20

3 Risks and Consequences 21

3.1 Introduction, 21

3.2 Risk and Consequence, 21

3.3 Credible Consequences, 24

3.4 Summary, 25

References, 25

4 Ecological Risk Assessment 26

4.1 Introduction, 26

4.2 Deep Water Horizon, 29

4.3 Love Canal, 34

4.4 Minimata Methylmercury, 36

4.5 Agent Orange, 38

4.6 Seveso, Italy, 40

4.7 Risk of Ecological Disasters, 41

4.8 Ecological Risk Assessment, 41

4.8.1 Example Ecological Risk Assessment, 45

4.9 Summary, 53

References, 54

5 Task Analysis Techniques 56

5.1 What is Task Analysis? 56

5.2 Why a Task Analysis? 57

5.3 When to use Task Analysis? 58

5.4 Task Analysis Process, 58

Step 1: Data Collection Information, 59

Step 2: Recording the Data, 60

Step 3: Data Analysis, 63

References, 63

6 Preliminary Hazards Analysis 64

6.1 Description, 65

6.1.1 Process of Preliminary Hazards Analysis, 66

6.1.2 Hazard Class, 69

6.1.3 Examples of Hazardous Energy Sources, 69

6.2 Using Process Hazard for Procedure Design, 72

6.2.1 Purpose of Process, 72

6.2.2 Initial Basic Procedure Steps, 72

6.2.3 Analysis, 73

6.2.4 Using the Results of the Analysis, 73

6.3 Using PHA for Preliminary Product Design, 75

Step 1: Determine Functions of the Crib, 76

Step 2: Determine Required/Critical Specifications, 76

Step 3: Determine Major Systems/Subsystems of the Crib, 76

Step 4: Determine Important Components of Each System/Subsystem, 77

Step 5: Determine Operating Modes of the Crib, 77

6.4 Summary, 79

References, 79

7 Primer on Probability and Statistics 81

7.1 Introduction, 81

7.2 Probability Theory, 85

7.3 Combining Probabilities, 87

7.4 Conditional Probability, 88

7.5 Probability Distributions, 89

7.6 Using Probability, 92

7.7 Summary, 95

References, 96

8 Developing Probabilities 97

8.1 Risk Assessment Data, 97

8.1.1 Introduction, 97

8.1.2 Hardware Failure Rate Data, 97

8.1.3 Manufacture, 98

8.1.4 Historical Data, 98

8.1.5 Government and Military Handbooks, 98

8.1.6 Commercial Data Sources, 98

8.1.7 Operational Data and Testing, 99

8.1.8 Failure Rate Calculations, 100

8.1.9 Accident Data, 103

8.1.10 Monte Carlo Simulation, 106

8.1.11 Human Error Probabilities, 107

8.1.12 Delphi Method, 108

8.1.13 Summary of the Delphi Process, 115

8.2 Overall Summary, 116

References, 116

9 Failure Mode and Effects Analysis 118

9.1 Introduction, 119

9.1.1 Description, 119

9.1.2 Why is a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Effective? 119

9.1.3 Types of Failure Mode and Effects Analyses, 120

9.1.4 Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Process, 120

9.2 Summary, 134

References, 134

10 Human Reliability Analyses 135

10.1 Introduction, 135

10.1.1 Purpose, 135

10.1.2 Background, 135

10.1.3 Bounding the System, 136

10.1.4 Summary Points, 139

10.2 Task Analysis, 139

10.2.1 Summary Points, 140

10.3 HRA Modeling, 141

10.3.1 Summary Points, 143

10.4 Quantifying Human Error Probability (HEP), 144

10.4.1 Summary Points, 148

10.5 Documentation, 148

10.5.1 Summary Points, 149

10.6 Use of Human Reliability Analysis Techniques for Analyzing Procedures, 149

10.6.1 Procedure, 149

10.6.2 Procedure with Inspection Steps, 151

References, 151

11 Critical Incident Technique 153

11.1 Introduction, 153

11.2 Method, 153

11.3 Building on the Results of a Critical Incident Technique Session, 157

Step 1: Ramp Agent observes Anomaly on Aircraft Cargo Door, 158

Step 2: Ramp Agent Discusses Damage with Supervisor, 160

Step 3: Ramp Agent Discusses Decision to Report Damage to Maintenance Control with

Supervisor, 160

Step 4: Ramp Agent Decides to Report Damage to Maintenance Control, 161

Step 5: Ramp Agent Shows Maintenance Control the Damage, 161

11.4 Summary, 162

References, 162

12 Event Tree and Decision Tree Analysis 163

12.1 Event Trees, 163

12.1.1 Case Study, 167

12.2 Decision Trees, 168

12.2.1 Problem, 170

12.3 Case Study: Chernobyl, 175

12.3.1 Analysis of the Event, 178

12.3.2 Event Tree Analysis, 179

12.4 Summary, 180

References, 180

13 Critical Function Analysis 181

13.1 Introduction, 181

13.1.1 United Flight 232, 183

13.1.2 Air Canada Flight 143, 185

13.2 Critical Functions, 187

13.3 Conducting a Critical Function Analysis, 190

13.3.1 Critical Function of a Small Business, 192

13.3.2 Chemical Reactor Critical Function Analysis, 193

13.3.3 Emergency Management Planning, 195

13.4 Summary, 197

References, 201

14 Basic Fault Tree Analysis Technique 203

14.1 History, 203

14.2 Application, 204

14.3 Fault Tree Construction, 205

14.4 Event Symbols, 205

14.5 Logic Gates, 207

14.6 Analysis Procedure, 208

14.6.1 Defining the Problem, 208

14.6.2 Constructing the Fault Tree, 209

14.6.3 Analyzing the Fault Tree, 210

14.6.4 Documenting the Results, 211

14.7 Examples of Fault Tree Analysis, 211

14.7.1 Simple Example, 211

14.7.2 Modeling Success Using Fault Tree Analysis, 214

14.7.3 Fault Tree Analysis for Use in Accident Investigation, 215

14.8 Summary, 221

References, 221

15 Probabilistic Risk Assessment 223

15.1 Description, 223

15.2 Requirements of the Risk Assessment, 224

15.3 Simplified PRA Procedure, 224

15.4 Hazard Identification and Evaluation, 225

15.5 Qualitative Risk Assessment, 225

15.6 Quantitative Risk Assessment, 226

15.7 Uses of PRA, 229

15.8 Conclusion, 230

References, 230

16 Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods Used in Risk Assessment 231

16.1 What is Qualitative Research? 231

16.1.1 Narrative Research, 232

16.1.2 Phenomenological Description, 233

16.1.3 Grounded Theory Research, 234

16.1.4 Ethnographic Research, 235

16.1.5 Case Study Research, 236

16.2 Quantitative, 238

16.3 Risk Assessment Perspective, 240

16.3.1 Aviation Study, 241

16.3.2 Design, 245

16.4 Conclusion, 247

References, 247

17 Vulnerability Analysis Technique 249

17.1 Introduction, 249

17.2 Case Study 1: Intruder, 251

17.3 Case Study 2: Multipurpose Academic Building, 254

17.3.1 Methods of Collecting Information, 255

17.3.2 Task Analysis, 257

17.3.3 Risk Assessment, 259

Reference, 276

18 Developing Risk Model for Aviation Inspection and Maintenance Tasks 277

18.1 Introduction, 277

18.2 Failure Mode and Effect Analysis, 277

18.3 Event Tree and Fault Tree Analysis, 279

18.4 Summary, 290

References, 291

19 Risk Assessment and Community Planning 292

19.1 Introduction, 292

19.2 Example Analysis, 296

19.2.1 Preliminary Hazard Analysis for Site A, 298

19.2.2 Preliminary Hazard Analysis for Site B, 298

19.2.3 Preliminary Hazard Analysis for Site C, 303

19.3 Summary, 307

References, 307

20 Risk of an Epidemic 309

20.1 Introduction, 309

20.2 Plague Example, 311

20.3 Tularemia Example, 312

20.4 Anthrax Example, 312

20.5 Ebola Example, 313

20.6 Smallpox Example, 313

20.7 TB Example, 314

20.8 Typhoid Fever Example, 314

20.9 Influenza Example, 315

20.10 Example of Measles, Mumps, and Rubella, 315

20.11 Polio Example, 316

20.12 Pertussis (Whooping Cough), 316

20.13 Cholera Example, 317

20.14 Summary, 318

References, 318

21 Process Plant Risk Assessment Example 319

21.1 Introduction, 319

21.1.1 Phillips Houston Chemical Complex, 319

21.1.2 BP Texas City Refinery, 323

21.2 Example Analysis, 327

21.2.1 Preliminary Hazard Analysis, 331

21.2.2 Sample Failure Mode and Effect Analysis, 334

21.2.3 Sample Event Trees, 334

21.2.4 Sample Fault Trees, 334

21.2.5 Sample PRA, 334

21.3 Summary, 344

References, 344

22 Industry Specific Case Studies 346

22.1 Case Study 1: Overview, 346

22.1.1 Introduction, 347

22.1.2 Approach, 349

22.1.3 Summary, 354

22.2 Case Study 2: Overview, 354

22.2.1 Introduction, 355

22.2.2 Approach, 356

22.2.3 Conclusions, 359

22.3 Case Study 3: Overview, 362

22.3.1 Introduction, 363

22.3.2 Purpose Statement, 363

22.3.3 Airport Security Risk Assessment Process, 364

22.3.4 Summary, 369

22.4 Case Study 4: Overview, 369

22.4.1 Introduction, 369

22.4.2 Food Safety Risk Assessment, 371

References, 375

23 Restaurant Risk Assessment Case Study 376

23.1 Introduction, 376

Glossary 381

Acronyms 386

Index 389

See More

Lee T. Ostrom, PhD, has worked in the fields of risk assessment, industrial safety, ergonomics, and human factors for over thirty years. A Certified Professional Ergonomist and Certified Safety Professional, he has been an assistant professor and degree coordinator for the industrial technology degree program at the University of Idaho. He is the author of Creating the Ergonomically Sound Workplace.

Cheryl A. Wilhelmsen is an assistant professor at APUS/AMU and consults with NASA Ames in the area of aviation inspection. In her thirty year career, she has conducted hundreds of ergonomic assessments and risk assessments from offices to nuclear hot cells. She has a master's of science in industrial technology from the University of Idaho and is currently a PhD.ABD.

See More

“It should prove invaluable reading for novices and experts alike.”  (RoSPA Occupational Safety & Health Journal, 1 May 2013)

 

See More

Related Titles

Back to Top