Yes, You Can Time the Market!
The Impossibility of Market Timing 1
The Power of Price 9
The Price/Earnings Ratio 29
Dividend Yields and Market Timing 51
Fundamental Value 69
Bonds, Price-to-Cash Flow, Price-to-Sales 87
Combining Factors for Superior Returns 103
Using Market Timing 135
Looking Forward: A Note of Caution 165
PHIL DeMUTH is an investment advisor and PhD psychologist who has a longstanding interest in the stock market and has written for The Wall Street Journal and Barron’s, as well as Human Behavior and Psychology Today. His opinions have been quoted on TheStreet.com and in Fortune magazine.
Stein may be known for the droll sense of humor he exhibits on his Comedy Central show, Win Ben Stein's Money, but it is hardly evident in this straightforward investment guide. Writing with coauthor DeMuth, an investment adviser, the former Nixon speechwriter counters the "conventional wisdom" that investors cannot time (or predict) their investment decisions to maximize profits. The authors cite a number of technical factors - e.g., Tobin's Q, price/earnings, dividend yield, price to cash flow, and price to sale - to show that careful study of these metrics demonstrates that some times are better than others for going into the market or buying a particular stock. They also show that protestations to the contrary, the "street" frequently times the market. Eighty tables and graphs are used to buttress their case. Stein's popularity and the use of his face on the book's cover may draw readers beyond the usual investment crowd, though some may find this joke-free treatment a bit too technical. Still, it is a competently written, well-argued case for a sensible investment approach and is quite suitable for academic and larger public libraries. — Patrick J. Brunet, Western Wisconsin Technology Coll., La Crosse. (Library Journal, May 1, 2003)
"...it's readable, coherent, sensible, good-natured..." (Barron's, May 26, 2003)