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The Almanac Investor: Profit from Market History and Seasonal Trends

ISBN: 978-0-471-65405-6
525 pages
November 2005
The Almanac Investor: Profit from Market History and Seasonal Trends (0471654051) cover image
The key to successful financial research is the ability to access and manipulate accurate data. This book, and its cutting edge, completely Internet-based trading system--that can organise and evaluate any market data, with all parameters set by the researcher--introduces a new way of doing just that. The Hirsch name is known for time tested and successful research and analysis, and The Almanac Investor will share valuable Hirsch theories and strategies with investors.
  • Trusted advice and techniques that can improve any reader's overall trading efficiency.
  • Contains data, indicators, and patterns needed to understand how and why the stock market fluctuates.
  • A companion Web site will host a revolutionary Web-based system to evaluate and improve trading practices.
  • Includes a step-by-step tutorial, which supplements every study in the book.
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Preface.

Part 1: Indicators and Patterns.

January Indicators and Patterns.

January Almanac.

Typical January.

January’s First Five Days “Early Warning System”.

The Incredible January Barometer.

1933 “Lame Duck” Amendment — Why JB Works.

New Congress Barometers.

JB versus All.

Down Januarys Followed by Further Declines.

The So-Called “January Effect”.

February Indicators and Patterns.

February Almanac.

Typical February.

Market Negative Before & After Presidents’ Day.

March Indicators and Patterns.

March Almanac.

Typical March.

Luck of the Irish Hits Wall Street Day Before St. Pat’s.

April Indicators and Patterns.

April Almanac.

Typical April.

Good Friday Better in April.

Down January + Down April = Bad Sign.

May Indicators and Patterns.

May Almanac.

Typical May.

Wall Street Rallies For Moms.

Memorial Day and the Stock Market.

June Indicators and Patterns.

June Almanac.

Typical June.

NASDAQ’s Powerful 12-Day Mid-Year Rally.

July Indicators and Patterns.

July Almanac.

Typical July.

Hot July Markets Often Precede Fourth Quarter Buying Opportunities.

August Indicators and Patterns.

August Almanac.

Typical August.

September Indicators and Patterns.

September Almanac.

Typical September.

Trading the Labor Day Market.

October Indicators and Patterns.

October Almanac.

Buy! Buy! Buy!

Typical October.

November Indicators and Patterns.

November Almanac.

Typical November.

Trading the Thanksgiving Market.

December Indicators and Patterns.

December Almanac.

Typical December.

Most of the So-Called “January Effect” Starts in Mid-December.

The Only “Free Lunch” on Wall Street.

Santa Claus Rally.

Half-Hourly Trading Patterns.

Weekly Trading Patterns.

Dow Gains Most First Two Days of the Week.

Monday Now Most Profitable S&P 500 Day of the Week.

S&P 500 Daily Performance Each Year Since 1952.

NASDAQ Strongest Last Three Days of the Week.

NASDAQ Daily Performance Each Year Since 1971.

Monthly Trading Patterns.

Typical S&P Month

Typical NASDAQ Month

Dow Gains More Eight Days a Month Than On

All 13 Remaining Days Combined

S&P 500 Market Probability Calendars

Dow Jones Industrials Market Probability Calendars

NASDAQ Market Probability Calendars

Russell 1000 Market Probability Calendars

Russell 2000 Market Probability Calendars

Annual Trading Patterns.

Market Behavior Three Days Before and Three Days After Holidays.

Seasonal Rallies and Corrections.

Best Months of the Year: Seasonal Switching Strategies.

Aura of the Triple Witch: Fourth Quarter Most Bullish, Down Weeks Trigger More Weakness Week After.

Annual Trading Volume Patterns.

The December Low Indicator: A Use Prognosticating Tool.

The Four-Year Presidential Election/ Stock Market Cycle.

The 172-Year Saga Continues.

How the Government Manipulates the Economy to Stay in Power.

Gridlock on Capitol Hill Is Best for the Markets.

Post-Election Years: Paying the Piper.

Under Democrats $10,000 Grows to $279,705, but Only to $80,466 Under Republicans.

Market Behavior When Incumbent Party Wins and Loses.

Post-Election High to Midterm Low: –22.2%.

Midterm Election Years: Where Bottom Pickers Find Paradise.

50% Gain From Midterm Low to Pre-Election High.

Prosperity More Than Peace Determines Outcome of Midterm Congressional Races.

Midterm Election Time Unusually Bullish.

Pre-Election Years: No Losers Since 1939

Only One Loss Last 7 Months of Election Years.

Incumbent Victories versus Incumbent Defeats.

Market Acts as a Barometer Between the Last Convention and Election Day.

Election Year Perspectives and Observations.

Decennial Cycle: A Market Phenomenon.

Bull and Bear Markets Since 1900.

How War and Peace Impact the Markets.

The Three Peaks and Domed House Recurring Market Pattern.

Part 2: Seasonal Sector Investing.

Sector Indices.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

Part 3: Databank.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Since 1950.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Since 1950.

NASDAQ Since 1971.

Russell 1000 Since 1979.

Russell 2000 Since 1979.

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JEFFREY A. HIRSCH is President of the Hirsch Organization. He's worked with founder Yale Hirsch for sixteen years, taking over as President and Editor in 2001. He appears frequently on CNBC, FOX News, and Bloomberg to discuss market cycles and seasonal trends, and edits the firm's monthly newsletter, also entitled Almanac Investor.

J. TAYLOR BROWN is Vice President of the Hirsch Organization.

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