Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, 2nd Edition
Since the first edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management was published, public interest in the field of risk analysis has grown astronomically. Its adaptation across many disciplines and its deployment by industry and government agencies in decision making has led to an unprecedented development of new theory, methodology, and practical tools.
The Second Edition of this well-regarded reference describes the state of the art of risk management and its important applications in such areas as engineering, science, manufacturing, business, management, and public policy. The author strikes a balance between the quantitative and the qualitative aspects of risk management, showing clearly how to quantify risk and construct probability in conjunction with real-world decision-making problems. At the same time, he addresses a host of institutional, organizational, political, and cultural considerations. Incorporating real-world examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion, the book presents basic concepts as well as advanced material, avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible.
Some key revisions to the Second Edition include:
* A completely updated format with many new examples and problems
* A new chapter on Risks of Terrorism, including case studies in transportation, water supply, infrastructure interdependencies, food safety, and a National Research Council report on terrorism
* A new chapter on Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management (RFRM), a technology co-developed by the author and supported by several case studies and examples
* A new focus on minimizing the high cost associated with today's more extensive risk management
Examining timely, multidisciplinary practical applications, this new edition offers an important resource for industry professionals as well as advanced graduate students in systems engineering.
PART I: FUNDAMENTALS OF RISK MODELING, ASSESSMENT, AND MANAGEMENT.
1. The Art and Science of Systems and Risk Analysis.
2. The Role of Modeling in the Risk Analysis Process.
3. Identifying Risk Through Hierarchical Holographic Modeling.
4. Decision Analysis.
5. Multiobjective Trade-Off Analysis.
6. Defining Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis.
7. Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management.
PART II: ADVANCES IN RISK MODELING, ASSESSMENT, AND MANAGEMENT.
8. Risk of Extreme Events and the Fallacy of Expected Value.
9. Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis.
10. Multiobjective Risk Impact Analysis Method.
11. Statistics of Extremes: Extension of the PMRM.
12. Bayesian Analysis and the Prediction of Chemical Carcinogenicity.
13. Fault Trees.
14. Multiobjective Statistical Method.
15. Principles and Guidelines for Project Risk Management.
16. Applying Risk Analysis to Space Missions.
17. Risk Modeling, Assess ment, and Management of Terrorism.
18. Case Studies.
Appendix: Optimization Techniques.
"…should enable students…to be well fortified for applications once they are on the job. Those beyond that stage can look upon the book as a comprehensive and sound treatise." (Journal of Food Quality, October 2004)
“…highly readable…a must for those who want at least an outline of why politicians and financial advisors are so often wrong.” (Measurement & Control, Vol 38 (7), September 2005)
"...can serve as the lead work in graduate business or engineering classes on risk aversion...an excellent reference that will come in handy in...[risk management professionals'] daily work." (Quality Progress, February 2005)
"Professor Haimes' book is already a classic and the second edition is even better. Anyone wishing to make a wise investment with almost no risk but huge intellectual dividends, should consider immediately obtaining a copy of this fine book.” (IIE Transactions on Operations Engineering)
"Incorporating real world examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion, the book presents basic concepts as well as advanced material, avoiding complex mathematics whenever possible." (Journal of the American Water Resources Association)
"…this new edition offers an important resource for industry professionals as well as advanced graduate students in systems engineering." (Zentralblatt MATH, 1105, 85)