Modeling in Medical Decision Making: A Bayesian Approach
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PART I: METHODS.
Estimating sensitivity and specificity.
Chronic disease modeling.
2. Decision making.
Foundations of expected utility theory.
Measuring the value of avoiding a major stroke.
Decision making in health care.
Cost-effectiveness analyses in the μ SPPM.
Statistical decision problems.
Inference via simulation.
Prediction and expected utility via simulation.
Sensitivity analysis via simulation.
Searching for strategies via simulation.
Part II: CASE STUDIES.
Tamoxifen in early breast cancer.
Combined studies with continuous and dichotomous responses.
5. Decision trees.
Axillary lymph node dissection in early breast cancer.
A simple decision tree
A more complete decision tree for ALND
6. Chronic disease modeling.
Natural history model.
Modeling the effects of screening.
Comparing screening schedules.
Optimizing screening schedule.