Acknowledgments.

Acronyms.

Introduction.

Management Overview.

Organization of the Guidelines.

1. Transportation Risk Analysis.

1.1 TRA Definitions.

1.2 General Framework of a TRA.

1.3 Typical Reasons for Conducting a TRA.

1.4 Transportation versus Fixed Facility Risk Evaluations.

1.4.1 General Similarities to Fixed Facility Evaluations.

1.4.2 Differences from Fixed Facility Evaluations.

1.5 Scope and Depth of TRA Studies.

1.5.1 The Study Cube.

1.5.2 Range of Incidents.

1.5.3 Selection of Initiating Events and Incidents.

1.6 Screening Techniques.

1.7 Limitations.

1.8 Current Practice.

1.9 The Use of Existing TRA Studies.

1.10 Utilization of TRA Results.

1.11 Project Management.

1.11.1 Study Objectives.

1.11.2 Depth of Study.

1.11.3 Project Plan and Schedule.

1.11.4 Review and Approvals.

1.12 Maintenance of Study Results.

1.13 References.

2. TRA Frequency Analysis.

2.1 Pipelines.

2.1.1 Failure Modes.

2.1.2 Parameters Influencing Accident Rates.

2.1.3 Parameters Influencing Release Probabilities.

2.1.4 Containment Systems.

2.1.5 Accident Trends with Time.

2.1.6 Confidence in Data.

2.1.7 Mode-Specific Issues.

2.1.8 Releases Associated with Supporting Equipment.

2.1.9 General Calculation Procedure.

2.2 Rail.

2.2.1 Failure Modes.

2.2.2 Parameters Influencing Accident Rates.

2.2.3 Parameters Influencing Release Probabilities.

2.2.4 Container Types.

2.2.5 Accident Trends with Time.

2.2.6 Confidence in Data.

2.2.7 Mode-Specific Issues.

2.2.8 Non-Accident-Initiated Releases.

2.2.9 General Calculation Procedure.

2.3 Road Transport.

2.3.1 Failure Modes.

2.3.2 Parameters Influencing Accident Rates.

2.3.3 Parameters Influencing Release Probabilities.

2.3.4 Container Types.

2.3.5 Accident Trends with Time.

2.3.6 Confidence in Data.

2.3.7 Mode-Specific Issues.

2.3.8 Non-Accident-Initiated Releases.

2.3.9 General Calculation Procedure.

2.4 Barge.

2.4.1 Failure Modes.

2.4.2 Parameters Influencing Accident Rates.

2.4.3 parameters Influencing Release Probabilities.

2.4.4 Container Types.

2.4.5 Accident Trends with Time.

2.4.6 Confidence in Data.

2.4.7 Mode-Specific Issues.

2.4.8 Non-Accident-Initiated Releases.

2.4.9 General Calculation Procedure.

2.5 Ocean-Going Vessel.

2.5.1 Failure Modes.

2.5.2 Parameters Influencing Accident Rates.

2.5.3 Parameters Influencing Release Probabilities.

2.5.4 Container Types.

2.5.5 Accident Trends with Time.

2.5.6 Confidence in Data.

2.5.7 Mode-Specific Issues.

2.5.8 Non-Accident-Initiated Releases.

2.5.9 General Calculation Procedure.

2.6 Intermodal Containers.

2.6.1 Failure Modes.

2.6.2 Parameters Influencing Accident Rates.

2.6.3 Parameters Influencing Release Probabilities.

2.6.4 Container Types.

2.6.5 Accident Trends with Time.

2.6.6 Confidence in Data.

2.6.7 Mode-Specific Issues.

2.6.8 Non-Accident-Initiated Releases.

2.6.9 General Calculation Procedure.

2.7 Conducting a Frequency Analysis.

2.8 References.

3. Special Topics.

3.1 Selection of Release Scenarios.

3.1.1 Truck Data.

3.1.2 Marine Data.

3.1.3 Rail Data.

3.1.4 Summary.

3.2 Population Densities.

3.3 Route Segmentation.

3.4 Ignition Algorithms.

3.5 Treatment of Classification Yards.

3.6 Transloading Operations.

3.7 Unique Consequence Analysis Modes.

3.8 Failure Frequency Models.

3.8.1 Predictive and Testing Methods.

3.8.2 Mechanical Predictive Methods.

3.8.3 Logical Procedures.

3.9 Environmental Risks.

3.10 Available Software.

3.11 References.

4. TRA Data.

4.1 Taxonomy for Accident Data.

4.2 Historical Data Sources.

4.3 Adjustments and Enhancements to Data.

4.4 Sources of Additional Data.

4.4.1 Population Data.

4.4.2 Climatic Data.

4.4.3 Route Data.

4.4.4 Shipment Data.

4.4.5 International Data.

4.5 Completeness and Accuracy of Data Sources.

4.6 Data Normalization.

4.7 Options in the Absence of Complete Data.

4.8 Ongoing Data Collection Efforts.

4.9 References.

Transportation Data Source Sheets.

5. Measurement, Calculation, and Presentation of Risk Estimates.

5.1 Risk Measures/Presentation.

5.2 Risk Calculations.

5.2.1 Individual Risk.

5.2.2 Societal Risk.

5.2.3 Other Risk Measures.

5.3 Risk Uncertainty, Sensitivity and Importance.

5.4 References.

6. TRA Application Examples.

6.1 Qualitative/Consequence TRA Examples.

6.1.1 Qualitative/Consequence TRA Characterization.

6.1.2 Comparison of Different Forms of One Material by Consequence Analysis.

6.1.3 Comparisons against Results of More Detailed Studies.

6.2 Semiqualitative/Frequency TRA Examples.

6.2.1 Semiquantitative/Frequency TRA Characterization.

6.2.2 Change in Supplier.

6.2.3 Change in Material Container.

6.3 Quantitative/Risk TRA Examples.

6.3.1 Quantitative/Risk TRA Characterization.

6.3.2 Determination of Available Risk Reduction Options and Their Ranking.

6.3.3 Evaluation of Alternative Models for Getting from Point A to Point B.

7. TRA Case Studies.

7.1 Pipeline Risk Assessment.

7.1.1 Introduction.

7.1.2 Description.

7.1.3 Identification, Enumeration, and Selection of Incidents.

7.1.4 Incident Consequence Estimation.

7.1.5 Incident Frequency Estimation.

7.1.6 Risk Estimation.

7.1.7 Discussion of Results.

7.1.8 References.

7.2 Tank Truck Risk Assessment.

7.2.1 Introduction.

7.2.2 Description.

7.2.3 Identification, Enumeration, and Selection of Incidents.

7.2.4 Incident Consequence Estimation.

7.2.5 Incident Frequency Estimation.

7.2.6 Risk Estimation.

7.2.7 Discussion of Results.

7.3 Rail Risk Assessment.

7.3.1 Introduction.

7.3.2 Description.

7.3.3 Identification, Enumeration, and Selection of Incidents.

7.3.4 Incident Consequence Estimation.

7.3.5 Incident Frequency Estimation.

7.3.6 Risk Estimation.

7.3.7 Discussion of Results.

7.3.8 References.

7.4 Barge Risk Assessment.

7.4.1 Introduction.

7.4.2 Description.

7.4.3 Identification, Enumeration, and Selection of Incidents.

7.4.4 Incident Consequence Estimation.

7.4.5 Incident Frequency Estimation.

7.4.6 Risk Estimation.

7.4.7 References.

7.5 Ocean-Going Vessel Risk Assessment.

7.5.1 Introduction

7.5.2 Description.

7.5.3 Identification, Enumeration, and Selection of Incidents.

7.5.4 Incident Consequence Estimation.

7.5.5 Incident Frequency Estimation.

7.5.6 Risk Estimation.

7.5.7 Discussion of Results.

7.5.8 References.

8. Future Developments.

8.1 General Risk Assessment Advances/Trends.

8.2 Release Rates and Volumes.

8.3 Release Probabilities for Specific Containers.

8.4 Accident Rates.

8.5 Integration with Network Models.

8.6 Comparisons with Actual Performance.

8.7 Risk Reduction Strategies.

8.8 Environmental Risk.

8.9 Increased Cooperation.

8.10 References.

Appendix A. Standard Container Illustrations and Specification.

Appendix B. Information Needs for a Study and Sources of Data.

Appendix C. Sample Outline for TRA Reports.

Appendix D. Conversion factors.

Appendix E. Qualitative Evaluations.

Transportation Risk Analysis Topical Bibliography.

Glossary.

Index.