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The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics, Volume 150

ISBN: 978-0-87590-415-3
410 pages
January 2004, American Geophysical Union
The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics, Volume 150 (0875904157) cover image

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 150.

Perhaps the most pressing scientific challenge before us concerns our understanding of the Earth and environmental change, which is occurring at a dramatic rate. Humanity can expect serious difficulties on the road ahead as a result, even to the point of threatening civilized progress itself. There is thus an urgent need to understand the state of the planet, to anticipate the effects and consequences of environmental change, and if necessary take preventive action.

Our understanding of change and its consequences can only advance, however, if we understand the Earth system well. Geophysics (sensu lato), one of the critical disciplines in the emerging interdisciplinary Earth System Science, forms the basis of the present book—which moves from the deepest parts of the Earth to surface environments, to a final discussion on the interface between science and society. While depicting the frontiers in each of their fields and focusing on present challenges, our contributing authors have also written for wide readership, specialists and non-specialists alike.

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Preface
Steve Sparks and Chris Hawkesworth vii

Foreword
Masaru Kono ix

The Earth's Core: An Approach From First Principles
G. David Price, D. Alfe, L. Votedlo, and M.J. Gil Ian 1

Modeling the Earth's Dynamo
Gary A. Glatzmaier, Darcy E. Ogden, and Thomas L. Clune 13

Core-Mantle Boundary Structures and Processes
Thorne Lay and Edward J. Garnero 25

Seismological Insights Into Heterogeneity Patterns in the Mantle
B. L. N. Kennett 43

Geophysical and Geochemical Models of Mantle Convection: Successes and Future Challenges
Yanick Ricard and Nicolas Coltice 59

Melting of Fertile Peridotite With Variable Amounts of H20
Bernard J. Wood 69

Geophysical Constraints on Slab Subduction and Arc Magmatism
Akira Hasegawa andJunichi Nakajima 81

Evolution of Arc Magmas and Their Volatiles
Richard J. Arculus 95

Volatile Controls on Magma Ascent and Eruption
Katharine V. Cashman 109

Climatic Impact of Volcanic Emissions
Alan Robock 125

High-Resolution Gravity Mapping: the Next Generation Sensors
Christopher Jekeli 135

Satellite Magmetic Field Measurements: Applications in Studying the Deep Earth
Catherine G. Constable and Steven C. Constable 147

Global Navigation Satellite Sounding of the Atmosphere and GNSS Altimetry:Prospects for Geosciences
T. P. Yunck and G. A. Hajj 161

Dense GPS Array as a New Sensor of Seasonal Changes of Surface Loads
Kosuke Heki 177


Remote Sensing of Terrestrial Water Storage, Soil Moisture and Surface Waters
James S. Famiglietti 197

High-Resolution Measurement of Ocean Surface Topography by Radar Interferometry
for Oceanographic and Geophysical Applications
Lee-Leung Fu and Ernesto Rodriguez 209

The Global Water Cycle
Taikan Oki, Dara Entekhabi, and Timothy Ives Harrold 225

Cryosphere During the Twentieth Century
Atsumu Ohmura 239

Climate Prediction: The Limits of Ocean Models
Peter H. Stone 259

Biosphere Dynamics: Challenges for Earth System Models
I. Colin Prentice, Corinne Le Quere, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Joanna I. House, Christine Klass, and Wolfgang Knorr 269

The UVic Earth System Climate Model and the Thermohaline Circulation in Past, Present,
and Future Climates
Andrew J. Weaver 279

Complexities in the Climate System and Uncertainties in Forecasts
Ronald G. Prinn 297

Modeling Human-Climate Interaction
Henry D. Jacoby 307

Uncertainty and Predictability in Geophysics: Chaos and Multifractal Insights
Daniel Schertzer and Shaun Lovejoy 317

Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting
David D. Jackson 335

Earthquake Prediction, Seismic Hazard, and Vulnerability
Seiya Uyeda and Kimiro Meguro 349

Volcanic Activity: Frontiers and Challenges in Forecasting, Prediction and Risk Assessment
R. S. J. Sparks and W. P. Aspinall 359

Geophysical Risk, Vulnerability, and Sustainability
Tom Beer 375

People Induced Geophysical Risks and Urban Sustainability
Ian Douglas 387

Urban Climate, Weather and Sustainability
Gerald Mills 399

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