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Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything

ISBN: 978-1-118-00457-9
336 pages
March 2011
Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything (1118004574) cover image
Greece isn't the only country drowning in debt. The Debt Supercycle—when the easily managed, decades-long growth of debt results in a massive sovereign debt and credit crisis—is affecting developed countries around the world, including the United States. For these countries, there are only two options, and neither is good—restructure the debt or reduce it through austerity measures. Endgame details the Debt Supercycle and the sovereign debt crisis, and shows that, while there are no good choices, the worst choice would be to ignore the deleveraging resulting from the credit crisis. The book:
  • Reveals why the world economy is in for an extended period of sluggish growth, high unemployment, and volatile markets punctuated by persistent recessions
  • Reviews global markets, trends in population, government policies, and currencies

Around the world, countries are faced with difficult choices. Endgame provides a framework for making those choices.

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Acknowledgments xiii

Introduction: Endgame 1

Part One: The End of the Debt Supercycle 11

Chapter 1: The Beginning of the End 15

Chapter 2: Why Greece Matters 31

Chapter 3: Let’s Look at the Rules 45

Chapter 4: The Burden of Lower Growth and More Frequent Recessions 73

Chapter 5: This Time Is Different 91

Chapter 6: The Future of Public Debt: An Unsustainable Path 109

Chapter 7: The Elements of Deflation 133

Chapter 8: Inflation and Hyperinflation 157

Part Two: A World Tour: Who Will Face Endgame First? 175

Chapter 9: The United States: The Mess We Find Ourselves In 181

Chapter 10: The European Periphery: A Modern-Day Gold Standard 215

Chapter 11: Eastern European Problems 233

Chapter 12: Japan: A Bug in Search of a Windshield 247

Chapter 13: The United Kingdom: How to Quietly Inflate Away Your Debt 261

Chapter 14: Australia: Could It Follow in Ireland's Footsteps? 273

Chapter 15: Unintended Consequences: Loose Monetary Policies and Emerging Markets 283

Conclusion: Investing and Profiting from Endgame 293

Epilogue: Some Final Thoughts 297

Notes 301

About the Authors 309

Index 311

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JOHN MAULDIN is a renowned financial expert, a multiple New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. His weekly e-newsletter, Thoughts From The Frontline, was one of the first publications to provide investors with free, unbiased information and guidance. Today, it is one of the most widely distributed investment newsletters in the world, translated into Chinese, Spanish and Italian. He is regularly seen on TV and in national print media. President of Millennium Wave Investments, he is the father of seven children (five adopted) and lives in Dallas, Texas.

JONATHAN TEPPER is the founder and Chief Editor of Variant Perception, a macroeconomic research group catering to hedge funds and high-net-worth individuals.

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In Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything, Mauldin and Tepper pull no punches and get directly the point. ...Endgame is a veritable trip around the world, as Mauldin lays out the uncomfortable choices facing nearly every major country. While Mauldin’s analysis of the American debt problem is sobering, his comments on Europe are downright frightening…Given the noise dominating the newswires, it is refreshing to find clear, coherent thinking. Our compliments to Messrs. Mauldin and Tepper on a job well done.”
Charles Sizemore, HS Dent Research Analyst and Editor of the Sizemore Investment Letter
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March 22, 2011
ENDGAME: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything

Greece is a basket case, Ireland on life support, and Japan a bug in search of a windshield. In the times ahead, the global sovereign debt and credit crisis will continue to spread like wildfire. And while no nation, developed or emerging, can escape the pain, the extent of the disaster and how it plays itself out will vary from country to country.  ENDGAME: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How it Changes Everything (Wiley Hardcover; March 14, 2011; 978-1-118-00457-9; $29.95; cloth), by John Mauldin and Jonathan Tepper, provides a road map through the morass.

Hundreds of books have been written about the financial crisis that engulfed the world after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt.  But what if the bigger financial crisis is ahead of us, not behind us? As Mauldin and Tepper deftly illustrate, the crisis was more than a half-century in the making.  The Great Financial Crisis, however, was merely Act 1.  Act II has now begun.

The massive household deleveraging, and historic shift of private debt onto government balance sheets now underway, represents the end of a sixty-year global Debt Supercycle.  We have now entered the Endgame, a time when bankruptcies and defaults will not be of households and companies but of governments.  The coming crisis will offer policymakers few good choices and many bad ones that will require extraordinary clarity and courage from leaders.

In ENDGAME Mauldin and Tepper:

 Reveal why the world economy is in for a protracted period of slow growth, high unemployment, volatile markets and persistent recessions

  • Describe the bad, worse, and disastrous options available to leaders tasked with avoiding a total collapse of their national economies
  • Review global markets, country-by-country, detailing population trends, government policies, currency outlooks, and more
  • Offer investors practical advice on how to protect their assets through the worst of it and profit from emerging opportunities

ENDGAME  takes readers on a country-by-country tour—including the U.S., UK., European countries, and Japan—clearly explaining the problems each country faces, as well as the good and bad policy options open to each, as well as the investment pitfalls and opportunities likely to be found in each national economy.

Despite the authors’ dark forecast, the message in ENDGAME is not all gloom and doom.  Mauldin and Tepper lay out positive steps governments can take to weather the worst of stormy days ahead, minimize the inevitable pain and discomfort most of us can expect to experience, and chart a bold new course to sustained economic growth and prosperity.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

John Mauldin (Dallas, TX) is the President of Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC (MWA), an investment advisory firm registered in multiple states, and is President of Millennium Wave Securities, LLC a FINRA registered broker-dealer.  Mauldin is a frequent contributor to numerous publications, and guest on TV and radio shows as well as quoted widely in the press and writes a free letter on hedge funds and private offerings called the Accredited Investor E-letter to accredited investors.  His free weekly e-letter, Notes from the Frontline, is read by more than a million people each week and is reprinted on numerous websites.  In addition, Mauldin writes a quarterly newsletter, Accredited Investor, about hedge funds that go to a smaller group of investors.  Mauldin frequently appears on CNBC, Bloomberg and other media and also speaks regularly at Money Show, Freedom Fest and other events.  Mauldin is bestselling author of Bull’s Eye Investing and Just One Thing.

Jonathan Tepper, (London) is the Founder and Chief Editor of Variant Perception, a macroeconomic research group that caters to hedge funds, family offices and high net worth individuals.  Jonathan's background is in finance: he has worked at Lehman Brothers, SAC Capital, and Bank of America where he was a Vice President in the proprietary trading group. He is also is the founder of Demotix. Demotix is a citizen-journalism website and photo agency. It takes user-generated content (UGC) and photographs from freelance journalists and amateurs, and markets them to the mainstream media. Jonathan graduated with highest honors in History and honors in Economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and then went on to do his M.Litt at Oxford in Modern History where he was a Rhodes Scholar.

 

ENDGAME

By John Mauldin and Jonathan Tepper

Wiley/March, 2011

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$29.95; 978-0-470-95090-6; Hardcover

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