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Stock Trader's Almanac 2012

ISBN: 978-1-118-04869-6
192 pages
October 2011
Stock Trader


A time-tested guide to stock trading market cycles

Published every year since 1968, the Stock Trader's Almanac is a practical investment tool with a wealth of information organized in calendar format. Everyone from well-known money managers to savvy traders and investors relies upon this annual resource for its in-depth analyses and insights. The Stock Trader's Almanac 2012 contains essential historical price information on the stock market, provides monthly and daily reminders, and highlights seasonal trading opportunities and dangers.

The Stock Trader's Almanac 2012 is packed with timely insights and targeted analysis to help you navigate turbulent markets and beat the odds in the year ahead. This trusted guide combines over a century's worth of data, statistics, and trends along with vital analysis you won't get anywhere else. The 2012 edition includes a revision of the Seasonal Switching Strategy that significantly boosts returns as well as new information on the coming Super Boom. Other key seasonal and cyclical updates include pre-presidential election year cycles and perspectives, how the government manipulates the economy to stay in power, incumbent victories vs. incumbent defeats, and the market impact of the lame duck year.

  • Alerts you to little-known market patterns and tendencies to help forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence
  • An indispensable annual resource, trusted for over 40 years by traders and investors
  • The data in the Almanac is some of the best in the business

For its wealth of information and the authority of its sources, the Stock Trader's Almanac stands alone as the guide to intelligent investing.

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Table of Contents

10 2012 Strategy Calendar

12 January Almanac

14 January's First Five Days: An "Early Warning" System

16 The Incredible January Barometer (Devised 1972): Only Seven Significant Errors in 61 Years

18 January Barometer in Graphic Form Since 1950

20 February Almanac

22 Hot January Industries Beat S&P 500 Next 11 Months

24 2012 Presidential Election Year Perspectives

26 The Second Year of Decades

28 March Almanac

30 Market Charts of Presidential Election Years

32 How to Trade Best Months Switching Strategies

34 How the Government Manipulates the Economy to Stay in Power

36 April Almanac

38 Incumbent Party Wins and Losses

40 The December Low Indicator: A Useful Prognosticating Tool

42 Down Januarys: A Remarkable Record

44 Top Performing Months Past 611/3Years: Standard & Poor's 500 and Dow Jones Industrials

46 May Almanac

48 Best Six Months: Still An Eye-Popping Strategy

50 MACD-Timing Triples “Best Six Months” Results

52 Only Two Losses Last 7 Months of Election Years

54 June Almanac

56 Top Performing NASDAQ Months Past 401/3Years

58 Get More out of NASDAQ's "Best Eight Months" with MACD-Timing

60 Triple Returns, Fewer Trades: Best 6 + 4-Year Cycle

62 July Almanac

64 First Month of Quarters Is the Most Bullish

66 2010 Daily Dow Point Changes

68 Don't Sell Stocks on Monday or Friday

70 A Rally for All Seasons

72 August Almanac

74 Fifteen Year Projection

76 Aura of the Triple Witch—4th Quarter Most Bullish: Down Weeks Trigger More Weakness Week After

78 Take Advantage of Down Friday/Down Monday Warning

82 A Correction for All Seasons

84 First-Trading-Day-of-The-Month Phenomenon: Dow Gains More One Day than All Other Days

86 Market Behavior Three Days before and Three Days after Holidays

88 Market Gains More on Super-8 Days Each Month Than on All 13 Remaining Days Combined

90 October Almanac

92 Sector Seasonality: Selected Percentage Plays

94 Sector Index Seasonality Strategy Calendar

98 November Almanac

100 Fourth Quarter Market Magic

102 Trading the Thanksgiving Market

104 Most of the So-Called "January Effect" Takes Place in the Last Half of December

106 December Almanac

108 January Effect Now Starts in Mid-December

110 Wall Street’s Only Free Lunch Served before Christmas

112 If Santa Claus Should Fail to Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall

114 Best Investment Book of the Year: George Lindsay and the A rt of Technical Analysis;Year's Top Investment Books

118 2012 Strategy Calendar


121 Dow Jones Industrials Market Probability Calendar 2012

122 Recent Dow Jones Industrials Market Probability Calendar 2012

123 S&P 500 Market Probability Calendar 2012

124 Recent S&P 500 Market Probability Calendar 2012

125 NASDAQ Market Probability Calendar 2012

126 Recent NASDAQ Market Probability Calendar 2012

127 Russell 1000 Index Market Probability Calendar 2012

128 Russell 2000 Index Market Probability Calendar 2012

129 Decennial Cycle: A Market Phenomenon

130 Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle: The 178-Year Saga Continues

131 Dow Jones Industrials Bull and Bear Markets Since 1900

132 Standard & Poor’s 500 Bull and Bear Markets Since 1929/NASDAQ Composite Since 1971

133 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: January and February

134 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: March and April

135 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: May and June

136 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: July and August

137 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: September and October

138 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: November and December

139 A Typical Day in the Market

140 Through the Week on a Half-Hourly Basis

141 Wednesday Most Profitable Day of Week

142 NASDAQ Strongest Last 3 Days of Week

143 S&P Daily Performance Each Year Since 1952

144 NASDAQ Daily Performance Each Year Since 1971

145 Monthly Cash Inflows into S&P Stocks

146 Monthly Cash Inflows into NASDAQ Stocks

147 November, December, and January: Year’s Best Three-Month Span

148 November through June: NASDAQ’s Eight-Month Run

149 Dow Jones Industrials Annual Highs, Lows, and Closes Since 1901

150 Standard & Poor’s 500 Annual Highs, Lows, and Closes Since 1930

151 NASDAQ, Russell 1000, and 2000 Annual Highs, Lows, and Closes Since 1971

152 Dow Jones Industrials Monthly Percent Changes Since 1950

153 Dow Jones Industrials Monthly Point Changes Since 1950

154 Dow Jones Industrials Monthly Closing Prices Since 1950

155 Standard & Poor’s 500 Monthly Percent Changes Since 1950

156 Standard & Poor’s 500 Monthly Closing Prices Since 1950

157 NASDAQ Composite Monthly Percent Changes Since 1971

158 NASDAQ Composite Monthly Closing Prices Since 1971

159 Russell 1000 Monthly Percent Changes and Closing Prices Since 1979

160 Russell 2000 Monthly Percent Changes and Closing Prices Since 1979

161 10 Best Days by Point and Percent

162 10 Worst Days by Point and Percent

163 10 BestWeeks by Point and Percent

164 10 WorstWeeks by Point and Percent

165 10 Best Months by Point and Percent

166 10 Worst Months by Point and Percent

167 10 Best Quarters by Point and Percent

168 10 Worst Quarters by Point and Percent

169 10 BestYears by Point and Percent

170 10 WorstYears by Point and Percent


172 Portfolio at Start of 2012

173 Additional Purchases

175 Short-Term Transactions

177 Long-Term Transactions

179 Interest/Dividends Received during 2012/Brokerage Account Data 2012

180 Weekly Portfolio Price Record 2012

182 Weekly Indicator Data 2012

184 Monthly Indicator Data 2012

185 Portfolio at End of 2012

186 If You Don’t Profit from Your Investment Mistakes, Someone Else Will; Performance Record of Recommendations

187 Individual Retirement Account (IRA): Most Awesome Mass Investment Incentive Ever Devised

188 Top 300 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

190 Option Trading Codes

191 G. M. Loeb's "Battle Plan" for Investment Survival

192 G. M. Loeb's Investment Survival Checklist

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Author Information

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (South Nyack, NY) is president of Hirsch Organization and has worked with Yale Hirsch for over 15 years.  In 2001 he took over as president and editor. He appears frequently on CNBC, Fox Biz, Yahoo! Tech Ticker, and Bloomberg to talk about market cycles and seasonal trends.  He also edits the monthly Almanac Investor eNewsletter, a digital subscription-based toolkit for active traders and investors.

The Hirsch Organization (South Nyack, NY) was founded by Yale Hirsch (Nyack, NY) who first published The Stock Trader's Almanac, which provides historical information to investors, in 1967.

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Record Section & Sample Spreadsheet from pages 171-192 of the STA 2012
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Strategy Planning & Record Section PDF for the STA 2012
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Press Release

October 05, 2011
Stock Trader's Almanac 2012

Fifteen Year Projection for Dow Historic Buying Opportunity

Now in its 45th annual edition, the STOCK TRADER’S ALMANAC 2012 (Wiley; October 2011; $45.00; 978-1-118-04869-6; Hardcover and Ebook) is packed with loads of new features, including a 15-year projection for the Dow that provides ample opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate stocks at a discount over the next several years and for nimble traders to capitalize on a volatile range bound market. Following up on last year’s forecast for the Next Super Boom to start in 2017 and carry the Dow up 500% to 38,820 by 2025 (expanded on in his book Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It; Wiley, April 2011), Editor-in-Chief Jeffrey A. Hirsch projects “a continuing sideways market through the year 2017 or 2018 with the Dow remaining in a range of roughly 7,000 to 14,000 before it takes off” on this 500% move. Hirsch continued, “Rising inflation from massive government spending and easy monetary policy over the next 5-10 years will begin to taper off as the stock market begins to inflate six-fold.” Relying on market behavior and global economic trends as well as monthly, seasonal, annual, and four-year cycle patterns during the last three major boom and bust cycles of the 20th Century, Hirsch expects several tests of Dow 10,000 and resistance to hold at 14,000. “Dow 8,000 is likely to come under fire in 2013-2014 as we withdraw from Afghanistan. Resistance will likely be met in 2015-2017 near 13,000-14,000. Another test of 8,000-support in 2017-2018 is expected as inflation begins to level off and the next Super Boom commences.”

This must-have investment tool has a wealth of information organized in a calendar format. It alerts readers to little-known market patterns and tendencies that help investors forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence. The data and analyses in the Almanac are relied upon by savvy professionals, from well-known money managers to journalists. Allowing shrewd investors to maximize profit potential, STA is the ultimate desktop market data bank, showing the market’s likely direction every hour, day, week, and month based on historical precedent. In addition, sector seasonalities that were revamped last year to include several consistent shorting opportunities have been expanded and updated with this edition. STAtransforms investing into a business framework and makes investing easier by presenting new techniques and tools, providing pertinent statistics on past market performance, and supplying forms necessary for portfolio management.

Created by Jeff Hirsch and the Hirsch Organization, tools and strategies contained in STA include:

The January Barometer: Predicts that stock market performance during the month of January sets the direction for the entire year. In fact, every down January for the S&P 500 since 1950 has been followed by a new or continuing bear market, a 10% correction or a flat year. The indicator has registered only seven major errors since 1950 for an 88.5% accuracy ratio. In 2010, the S&P 500 was down 3.7%, but after a 16.0% correction, the year ultimately ended up as the market was buoyed by the Fed’s QE2. In 2011, the S&P was up by 2.3% in January, which bodes well for full-year gains in 2011 though current conditions suggest gains will be modest.

The Best Six Months Switching Strategy: The stock market tends to make almost all its gains during just six particular months of the year. In most years, the rest of the time traders would be better off putting their money in T-bills and going fishing. STA has upped the ante on this old favorite by combining the benefits of the Best Six Months and the four-year cycle, nearly tripling the Best Six Months results with four trades every four years. In the 2012 edition, the almanac provides detailed instructions on how to implement trading strategies based on the Best Months Switching Strategies and some simple techniques for determining what to trade when implementing this strategy, including a sampling of tradable mutual funds and ETFs.

Four-Year Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle: Our presidential elections every four years affect the economy and the stock market – just as the moon affects the tides. There have been no losses in the third (pre-election) year of a president’s term since war-torn 1939 as presidents prime the pump to keep themselves or their party in the White House. However, if President Obama and Congress fail to reach common ground on key economic and budget policy issues in short order, 2011 runs the risk of being the first losing pre-election year since the start of WWII. Continued political grandstanding in Washington is likely to temper gains in 2012.

Other products from the Hirsch Organization include COMMODITY TRADER’S ALMANAC 2012 (Wiley; November 2011; $45.00; 978-1-1180-7847-1; Hardcover; Ebook), StockTradersAlmanac.comand the Stock Trader’s Almanac Apple App.

Organized in the same format as the Stock Trader’s Almanac, COMMODITY TRADER’S ALMANAC provides essential market-based data and trends for eight major commodity groupings: energy; metals; grains; softs; meats; currencies; plus S&P 500 and 30-Year Treasury Bond futures. Written by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John L. Person, it contains pertinent statistics on past market performance for all major futures and commodities, from crude oil and coffee to gold and sugar. CTA also focuses on highly-correlated exchange traded fund (ETF) and stocks to trade the most consistent commodity and futures seasonalities, using a few simple technical timing techniques detailed throughout the annual tome.

In addition to access to the annual STA print edition, a subscription to the digital product ALMANAC INVESTOR provides twice weekly e-mail alerts that feature stock market forecasting, indicators, and seasonal patterns, alerting users to the best/worst trading days, market changes, stock and ETF recommendations and updates, financial commentary, overall market sentiment; monthly enewsletters that provide a guide to market patterns, cycles, fundamental developments, strategies and stock selection, and updates and expands the strategies outlined in the Stock Trader’s Almanac; and access to handy research and portfolio tracking tools that enable subscribers to do their own research and update market indicators and strategies.

The Stock Trader’s Almanac Blog provides daily trading sentiment and keeps Almanac followers up to date on indicators, hot-topics, market happenings, speaking, news, and media coverage. The Hirsch Organization also publishes books with Wiley under its Almanac Investor Series, including The MAGNET Method of Investing by Jordan Kimmel, Double Your Money in America's Finest Companies by Bill Staton andAmerica's Finest Companies 2010: 19th Annual Investment Directory (E-Book Only) by Bill Staton with Mary Staton. 

The Stock Trader’s Almanac 2012 Apple App (December 2011) provides historical market data for every trading day of 2012. Designed for iPhone, iTouch, and iPad, this app is loaded with trading data, tools and timing triggers derived from over 45 years of research by the Hirsch Organization.

Features include

  • A New Monthly Almanac Tool: Track market performance by month to identify best and worst months for the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ
  • Notes: Create your own trading notes and export them to email, DropBox and Google Docs
  • Day View: Bull/bear/neutral icon; Market Probability % for DOW, S&P, NAS, R1K, R2K; Key Market Facts; Links to detailed timing explanations; Witching indicators; and Quote of the Day
  • Week View: Bull/bear/neutral icon and Signals to look for “This Week” 
  • Month View: Bull/bear/neutral indicators; Probability Chart; Market Facts; and Vital Statistics
  • Markets: Current major market quotes vs. probability
  • Tools: Full Stock Trader’s Almanac blog content; ability to export daily data to iCal, Outlook and Google Calendar; December Low Indicator; and Probability Index (select data set for any period from 1901 to present)
  • Shop: Resources and trading tools from Wiley Global Finance (Wileyglobalfinance.com)
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