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Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything

ISBN: 978-1-118-05808-4
336 pages
February 2011
Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything (1118058089) cover image
Greece isn't the only country drowning in debt. The Debt Supercycle—when the easily managed, decades-long growth of debt results in a massive sovereign debt and credit crisis—is affecting developed countries around the world, including the United States. For these countries, there are only two options, and neither is good—restructure the debt or reduce it through austerity measures. Endgame details the Debt Supercycle and the sovereign debt crisis, and shows that, while there are no good choices, the worst choice would be to ignore the deleveraging resulting from the credit crisis. The book:
  • Reveals why the world economy is in for an extended period of sluggish growth, high unemployment, and volatile markets punctuated by persistent recessions
  • Reviews global markets, trends in population, government policies, and currencies

Around the world, countries are faced with difficult choices. Endgame provides a framework for making those choices.

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Acknowledgments xiii

Introduction: Endgame 1

Part One: The End of the Debt Supercycle 11

Chapter 1: The Beginning of the End 15

Chapter 2: Why Greece Matters 31

Chapter 3: Let’s Look at the Rules 45

Chapter 4: The Burden of Lower Growth and More Frequent Recessions 73

Chapter 5: This Time Is Different 91

Chapter 6: The Future of Public Debt: An Unsustainable Path 109

Chapter 7: The Elements of Deflation 133

Chapter 8: Inflation and Hyperinflation 157

Part Two: A World Tour: Who Will Face Endgame First? 175

Chapter 9: The United States: The Mess We Find Ourselves In 181

Chapter 10: The European Periphery: A Modern-Day Gold Standard 215

Chapter 11: Eastern European Problems 233

Chapter 12: Japan: A Bug in Search of a Windshield 247

Chapter 13: The United Kingdom: How to Quietly Inflate Away Your Debt 261

Chapter 14: Australia: Could It Follow in Ireland's Footsteps? 273

Chapter 15: Unintended Consequences: Loose Monetary Policies and Emerging Markets 283

Conclusion: Investing and Profiting from Endgame 293

Epilogue: Some Final Thoughts 297

Notes 301

About the Authors 309

Index 311

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JOHN MAULDIN is a renowned financial expert, a multiple New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. His weekly e-newsletter, Thoughts From The Frontline, was one of the first publications to provide investors with free, unbiased information and guidance. Today, it is one of the most widely distributed investment newsletters in the world, translated into Chinese, Spanish and Italian. He is regularly seen on TV and in national print media. President of Millennium Wave Investments, he is the father of seven children (five adopted) and lives in Dallas, Texas.

JONATHAN TEPPER is the founder and Chief Editor of Variant Perception, a macroeconomic research group catering to hedge funds and high-net-worth individuals.

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In Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything, Mauldin and Tepper pull no punches and get directly the point. ...Endgame is a veritable trip around the world, as Mauldin lays out the uncomfortable choices facing nearly every major country. While Mauldin’s analysis of the American debt problem is sobering, his comments on Europe are downright frightening…Given the noise dominating the newswires, it is refreshing to find clear, coherent thinking. Our compliments to Messrs. Mauldin and Tepper on a job well done.”
Charles Sizemore, HS Dent Research Analyst and Editor of the Sizemore Investment Letter
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