Think Like a Futurist: Know What Changes, What Doesn't, and What's Next

Introduction ix

Part One: Know—The Four Forces of Change 1

1 The Four Forces of Change 3

2 Resources 11

3 Technology 21

4 Demographics 33

5 Governance 47

Part Two: New—The Zone of Discovery 63

6 Higher Learning 69

7 Phase I: Define 77

8 Phase II: Discover 87

9 Phase III: Distill 97

10 Who Are You? 107

11 Where Are You Going? 145

Part Three: DO—The 5 Percent Rule 175

12 The 5 Percent Rule 177

13 Tinkering: The Genesis of General Mills’s Idea Greenhouse 181

Conclusion 213

Part Four: What’s Next Toolkit 219

The Futurist’s Mind-set 221

Overcoming Resistance to Change 227

Notes 239

Acknowledgments 245

About the Author 247

Index 249