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Stock Trader's Almanac 2014

ISBN: 978-1-118-65945-8
192 pages
September 2013
Stock Trader

A time-tested guide to stock trading market cycles and seasonal trends 

Published every year since 1968, the Stock Trader's Almanac is a practical investment tool with a wealth of information organized in calendar format. Everyone from well-known money managers to savvy traders and investors relies upon this annual resource for its in-depth analyses and insights. The Stock Trader's Almanac 2014 contains essential historical price information on the stock market, provides monthly and daily reminders, and highlights seasonal trading opportunities and dangers. 

The STA is now bound with a lexitone cover and an attractive gold spiral with gold foil stamping. This new format is more user-friendly and lies flat when open, easier for making notes.  It is also lighter and more portable.  This version harkens back to the original STA format that Yale Hirsch pioneered over 40 years ago. 

The Stock Trader's Almanac 2014 is packed with timely insights and targeted analysis to help you navigate turbulent markets and beat the odds in the year ahead. This trusted guide combines over a century's worth of data, statistics, and trends along with vital analysis you won't get anywhere else.

  • Alerts you to little-known market patterns and tendencies to help forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence
  • An indispensable annual resource, trusted for over 40 years by traders and investors
  • The data in the Almanac is some of the best in the business 

For its wealth of information and the authority of its sources, the Stock Trader's Almanac stands alone as the guide to intelligent investing.

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CONTENTS

10 2014 Strategy Calendar

12 January Almanac

14 January’s First Five Days: An Early Warning System

16 The Incredible January Barometer (Devised 1972): Only Seven Significant Errors in 63 Years

18 January Barometer in Graphic Form Since 1950

20 February Almanac

22 John Person’s Top Ten Market Timing & Stock Selection Tools

24 The Fourth Year of Decades

26 Market Charts of Midterm Election Years

28 March Almanac

30 Midterm Election Years: Where Bottom Pickers Find Paradise

32 Prosperity More than Peace Determines Outcome of Midterm Congressional Races

34 How to Trade Best Months Switching Strategies

36 New Millennium Seasonal & Sector Trades

38 April Almanac

40 The December Low Indicator: A Useful Prognosticating Tool

42 Down Januarys: A Remarkable Record

44 Top Performing Months Past 63¼3 Years: Standard & Poor’s 500 and Dow Jones Industrials

46 May Almanac

48 “Best Six Months”: Still an Eye-Popping Strategy

50 MACD-Timing Triples “Best Six Months” Results

52 Best Investment Book of the Year: Mastering the Stock Market

54 June Almanac

56 Top Performing NASDAQ Months Past 42¼3 Years

58 Get More out of NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” with MACD-Timing

60 Triple Returns, Fewer Trades: Best 6 + 4-Year Cycle

62 First Months of Quarters are the Most Bullish

64 July Almanac

66 2012 Daily Dow Point Changes

68 Don’t Sell Stocks on Monday or Friday

70 A Rally for All Seasons

72 August Almanac

74 Why a 50% Gain in the Dow is Possible from its 2014 Low to its 2015 High

76 Aura of the Triple Witch—4th Quarter Most Bullish: Down Weeks Trigger More Weakness Week After

78 Take Advantage of Down Friday/Down Monday Warning

80 September Almanac

82 A Correction for All Seasons

84 First-Trading-Day-of-the-Month Phenomenon: Dow Gains More One Day than All Other Days

86 Market Behavior Three Days Before and Three Days After Holidays

88 Market Gains More on Super-8 Days Each Month than on All 13 Remaining Days Combined

90 October Almanac

92 Sector Seasonality: Selected Percentage Plays

94 Sector Index Seasonality Strategy Calendar

98 November Almanac

100 Midterm Election Time Unusually Bullish

102 Fourth Quarter Market Magic

104 Trading the Thanksgiving Market

106 Most of the So-Called “January Effect” Takes Place in the Last Half of December

108 December Almanac

110 January Effect Now Starts in Mid-December

112 Wall Street’s Only Free Lunch Served Before Christmas

114 If Santa Claus Should Fail to Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall

116 Year’s Top Investment Books

118 2015 Strategy Calendar

DIRECTORY OF TRADING PATTERNS & DATABANK

121 Dow Jones Industrials Market Probability Calendar 2014

122 Recent Dow Jones Industrials Market Probability Calendar 2014

123 S&P 500 Market Probability Calendar 2014

124 Recent S&P 500 Market Probability Calendar 2014

125 NASDAQ Market Probability Calendar 2014

126 Recent NASDAQ Market Probability Calendar 2014

127 Russell 1000 Index Market Probability Calendar 2014

128 Russell 2000 Index Market Probability Calendar 2014

129 Decennial Cycle: A Market Phenomenon

130 Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle: The 180-Year Saga Continues

131 Dow Jones Industrials Bull and Bear Markets Since 1900

132 Standard & Poor’s 500 Bull and Bear Markets Since 1929/NASDAQ Composite Since 1971

133 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: January and February

134 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: March and April

135 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: May and June

136 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: July and August

137 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: September and October

138 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: November and December

139 A Typical Day in the Market

140 Through the Week on a Half-Hourly Basis

141 Tuesday Most Profitable Day of Week

142 NASDAQ Strongest Last 3 Days of Week

143 S&P Daily Performance Each Year Since 1952

144 NASDAQ Daily Performance Each Year Since 1971

145 Monthly Cash Inflows into S&P Stocks

146 Monthly Cash Inflows into NASDAQ Stocks

147 November, December, and January: Year’s Best Three-Month Span

148 November Through June: NASDAQ’s Eight-Month Run

149 Dow Jones Industrials Annual Highs, Lows, and Closes Since 1901

150 S&P 500 Annual Highs, Lows, and Closes Since 1930

151 NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000 Annual Highs, Lows, and Closes Since 1971

152 Dow Jones Industrials Monthly Percent Changes Since 1950

153 Dow Jones Industrials Monthly Point Changes Since 1950

154 Dow Jones Industrials Monthly Closing Prices Since 1950

155 Standard & Poor’s 500 Monthly Percent Changes Since 1950

156 Standard & Poor’s 500 Monthly Closing Prices Since 1950

157 NASDAQ Composite Monthly Percent Changes Since 1971

158 NASDAQ Composite Monthly Closing Prices Since 1971

159 Russell 1000 Monthly Percent Changes and Closing Prices Since 1979

160 Russell 2000 Monthly Percent Changes and Closing Prices Since 1979

161 10 Best Days by Point and Percent

162 10 Worst Days by Point and Percent

163 10 Best Weeks by Point and Percent

164 10 Worst Weeks by Point and Percent

165 10 Best Months by Point and Percent

166 10 Worst Months by Point and Percent

167 10 Best Quarters by Point and Percent

168 10 Worst Quarters by Point and Percent

169 10 Best Years by Point and Percent

170 10 Worst Years by Point and Percent

171 Dow Jones Industrials One-Year Seasonal Pattern Charts Since 1901

172 S&P 500 One-Year Seasonal Pattern Charts Since 1930

173 NASDAQ, Russell 1000 & 2000 One-Year Seasonal Pattern Charts Since 1971

STRATEGY PLANNING AND RECORD SECTION

175 Portfolio at Start of 2014

176 Additional Purchases

178 Short-Term Transactions

180 Long-Term Transactions

182 Interest/Dividends Received during 2014/Brokerage Account Data 2014

183 Weekly Portfolio Price Record 2014

185 Weekly Indicator Data 2014

187 Monthly Indicator Data 2014

188 Portfolio at End of 2014

189 If You Don’t Profit from Your Investment Mistakes, Someone Else Will; Performance Record of Recommendations

190 Individual Retirement Account: Most Awesome Mass Investment Incentive Ever Devised

191 G.M. Loeb’s “Battle Plan” for Investment Survival

192 G.M. Loeb’s Investment Survival Checklist

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October 10, 2013
Midterm Election Years: Where Bottom Pickers Find Paradise

Now in its 47th annual edition the STOCK TRADER’S ALMANAC 2014 (Wiley; October 2013; $50.00; 978-1-118-65945-8; Spiral-bound paperback and E-book) has been redesigned and is now bound with a lexotone cover with an attractive gold spiral and gold foil stamping that provides a more-user friendly format that lies flat when open, making it easier to write notes, lighter and more portable. This new design harkens back to the original format that Yale Hirsch pioneered over 40 years ago, proving that everything old is new again.

This latest edition also contains key seasonal and cyclical updates. Brand new for this edition, the Almanac has included one-year seasonal pattern charts for Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000. As 2014 is a midterm election year, each chart contains typical midterm election year performance compared to all years.

“Midterm election years are historically prone to bottoms, especially in October,” says the Almanac’s Editor-in-chief Jeffrey A. Hirsch. “2014 is also a ‘fourth’ year, which has the fourth best record in the decennial cycle for 132 years. Of the last four midterm election years since the start of the Great Depression (1934, 1954, 1974, 1994) that were also fourth years, only 1954 was impressive. If the 2013 bull rally powers ahead without much of a pause, 2014 becomes more vulnerable to another sizable downturn. But Almanac readers can take some solace in the fact that the Dow has gained nearly 50% on average from the midterm low the pre-election year high.”

Among the research readers will find especially pertinent to 2014 are Market Charts of Midterm Years, Prosperity More Than Peace Determines the Outcome of Midterm Elections and that Midterm Election Time Is Unusually Bullish. Since 1934, the eight trading days surrounding midterm election days have produced an impressive 2.7% average gain. Hirsch adds, “Though the stock market in presidential elections very often is able to predict if the party in power will retain or lose the White House, the outcome of congressional races in midterm years is another matter entirely. Typically the President’s party loses a number of House seats in these elections. If the market does not offer a clue to the outcome on House races, does anything besides the popularity and performance of the Administration? Yes! In the two years prior to the elections in 10 of the 24 midterm years since 1918, no war or major recession began. As a result, House seats were gained or the loss was minimal. A further observation is that the market gained ground in the last seven weeks of these 10 years, with an exception in 2002.”

This must-have investment tool has a wealth of information organized in a calendar format. It alerts readers to little-known market patterns and tendencies that help investors forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence. The data and analyses in the Almanac are relied upon by savvy professionals, from well-known money managers to journalists. Allowing shrewd investors to maximize profit potential, STAis the ultimate desktop market data bank, showing the market’s likely direction every hour, day, week, and month based on historical precedent. STA transforms investing into a business framework and makes investing easier by presenting new techniques and tools, providing pertinent statistics on past market performance, and supplying forms necessary for portfolio management.

For the Almanac's 2014 Outlook and the Mid-Term Election highlights see here.

Created by Jeff Hirsch and the Hirsch Organization, tools and strategies contained in STA include:

The January Barometer: Predicts that stock market performance during the month of January sets the direction for the entire year. In fact, every down January for the S&P 500 since 1950 has been followed by a new or continuing bear market, a 10% correction or a flat year.  S&P 500 gains in January’s first five days preceded full-year gains 85.0% of the time, 8 of the last 16 midterm years followed first five days’ direction.

The Best Six Months Switching Strategy AKA Sell In May: The stock market tends to make almost all of its gains during just six particular months of the year. In most years, the rest of the time traders would be better off putting their money in T-bills and going fishing. STA has upped the ante on this old favorite by combining the benefits of the Best Six Months with a technical timing indicator and the four-year cycle, nearly tripling the Best Six Months results with four trades every four years. The Almanac provides detailed instructions on how to implement trading strategies based on the Best Months Switching Strategies and some simple techniques for determining what to trade when implementing this strategy, including a sampling of tradable mutual funds and ETFs.

Four-Year Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle: Our presidential elections every four years affect the economy and the stock market – just as the moon affects the tides. In the last 13 midterm election years, bear markets began or were in progress nine times. However, this had provided excellent buying opportunities. By the third, pre-election, year the administration’s focus shifts to “priming the pump.” Policies are enacted to improve the economic well-being of the country and its electorate.

In addition to access to the annual STA print edition, a subscription to the digital product ALMANAC INVESTOR provides twice weekly e-mail alerts that feature stock market forecasting, indicators, and seasonal patterns, alerting users to the best/worst trading days, market changes, stock and ETF recommendations and updates, financial commentary, overall market sentiment; monthly enewsletters that provide a guide to market patterns, cycles, fundamental developments, strategies and stock selection, and updates and expands the strategies outlined in the Stock Trader’s Almanac; and access to handy research tools that enable subscribers to do their own research and update market indicators and strategies.

Other products from the Hirsch Organization include: STOCK MARKET CYCLES: HOW TO USE THEM FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM (Wiley; April 2013; DVD and Streaming Video; $60), SEASONAL SECTOR TRADES: 2014 Q1 STRATEGIES (Wiley; December 2013; e-only; $40), THE LITTLE BOOK OF STOCK MARKET CYCLES (Wiley; August 2012; Hardcover and E-book, $22.95 and SUPER BOOM: WHY THE DOW JONES WILL HIT 38,820 AND HOW YOU CAN PROFIT FROM IT (Wiley; April 2011; Hardcover and E- $24.95).

Stock Market Cycles presents Hirsch’s short-term and long-term market forecasts and describes how he uses cycles to help time the market in a new video format. Available on DVD, via WileyTrading.com and Amazon.com, or a streaming video via WileyTrading.com, Hirsch reveals how to interpret stock market history to forecast future movements. In the video, given the confluence of cycles, Hirsch forecasts that the Dow Jones average likely will drop below 10,000 through late 2014. After a major rally and then another decline, he believes a secular bull market will emerge around 2018 which could drive the market up five-fold by 2025.

Also in a new, e-only format the upcoming Seasonal Sector Trades, contains trade recommendations and strategies for the first quarter (Q1) of 2014. This new quarterly publication is the culmination of years of painstaking research and will provide traders with the historic knowledge to spot big trades unfolding in today's markets. It identifies the best trades for each month based on historic tendencies and cycles. A special report is issued covering stocks, bonds, currencies, energy, metals, grains, soft commodities, and meats. An accompanying strategy calendar shows readers what to monitor during the beginning, middle, and end of each month. Backstopping the recommendations are articles on the major trades of the month and in-depth analysis on the historic price patterns of the underlying market.

The Stock Trader’s Almanac Blog (http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/) provides daily trading sentiment and keeps Almanac followers up to date on indicators, hot-topics, market happenings, speaking, news, and media coverage.

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