Risk Assessment of Power Systems: Models, Methods, and Applications, 2nd EditionISBN: 9781118686706
560 pages
March 2014, WileyIEEE Press

Extended models, methods, and applications in power system risk assessment
Risk Assessment of Power Systems: Models, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition fills the gap between risk theory and realworld application. Author Wenyuan Li is a leading authority on power system risk and has more than twentyfive years of experience in risk evaluation. This book offers realworld examples to help readers learn to evaluate power system risk during planning, design, operations, and maintenance activities.
Some of the new additions in the Second Edition include:
 New research and applied achievements in power system risk assessment
 A discussion of correlation models in risk evaluation
 How to apply risk assessment to renewable energy sources and smart grids
 Asset management based on condition monitoring and risk evaluation
 Voltage instability risk assessment and its application to system planning
The book includes theoretical methods and actual industrial applications. It offers an extensive discussion of component and system models, applied methods, and practical examples, allowing readers to effectively use the basic concepts to conduct risk assessments for power systems in the real world. With every original chapter updated, two new sections added, and five entirely new chapters included to cover new trends, Risk Assessment of Power Systems is an essential reference.
Preface to the First Edition xxi
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Risk in Power Systems 1
1.2 Basic Concepts of Power System Risk Assessment 4
1.3 Outline of the Book 9
2 Outage Models of System Components 15
2.1 Introduction 15
2.2 Models of Independent Outages 16
2.3 Models of Dependent Outages 31
2.4 Conclusions 42
3 Parameter Estimation in Outage Models 45
3.1 Introduction 45
3.2 Point Estimation on Mean and Variance of Failure Data 46
3.3 Interval Estimation on Mean and Variance of Failure Data 49
3.4 Estimating Failure Frequency of Individual Components 54
3.5 Estimating Probability from a Binomial Distribution 56
3.6 Experimental Distribution of Failure Data and Its Test 57
3.7 Estimating Parameters in Aging Failure Models 60
3.8 Conclusions 70
4 Elements of Risk Evaluation Methods 73
4.1 Introduction 73
4.2 Methods for Simple Systems 74
4.3 Methods for Complex Systems 84
4.4 Correlation Models in Risk Evaluation 91
4.5 Conclusions 102
5 Risk Evaluation Techniques for Power Systems 105
5.1 Introduction 105
5.2 Techniques Used in GenerationDemand Systems 106
5.3 Techniques Used in Radial Distribution Systems 114
5.4 Techniques Used in Substation Configurations 118
5.5 Techniques Used in Composite Generation and Transmission Systems 129
5.6 Conclusions 141
6 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Development Planning 143
6.1 Introduction 143
6.2 Concept of Probabilistic Planning 144
6.3 Risk Evaluation Approach 146
6.4 Example 1: Selecting the LowestCost Planning Alternative 149
6.5 Example 2: Applying Different Planning Criteria 158
6.6 Conclusions 167
7 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Operation Planning 169
7.1 Introduction 169
7.2 Concept of Risk Evaluation in Operation Planning 170
7.3 Risk Evaluation Method 173
7.4 Example 1: Determining the LowestRisk Operation Mode 175
7.5 Example 2: A Simple Case by Hand Calculation 181
7.6 Conclusions 188
8 Application of Risk Evaluation to Generation Source Planning 191
8.1 Introduction 191
8.2 Procedure of Reliability Planning 192
8.3 Simulation of Generation and Risk Costs 193
8.4 Example 1: Selecting Location and Size of Cogenerators 196
8.5 Example 2: Making a Decision to Retire a Local Generation Plant 205
8.6 Conclusions 210
9 Application of Risk Evaluation to Selecting Substation Configurations 211
9.1 Introduction 211
9.2 Load Curtailment Model 212
9.3 Risk Evaluation Approach 215
9.4 Example 1: Selecting Substation Configuration 217
9.5 Example 2: Evaluating Effects of Substation Configuration Changes 223
9.6 Example 3: Selecting Transmission Line Arrangement Associated with Substations 229
9.7 Conclusions 233
10 Application of Risk Evaluation to Renewable Energy Systems 235
10.1 Introduction 235
10.2 Risk Evaluation of Wind Turbine Power Converter System (WTPCS) 237
10.3 Risk Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Systems 251
10.4 Conclusions 272
11 Application of Risk Evaluation to Composite Systems with Renewable Sources 275
11.1 Introduction 275
11.2 Risk Assessment of a Composite System with Wind Farms and Solar Power Stations 276
11.3 Determination of Transfer Capability Required by Wind Generation 296
11.4 Conclusions 310
12 Risk Evaluation of Wide Area Measurement and Control System 313
12.1 Introduction 313
12.2 Hierarchical Structure and Failure Analysis of WAMCS 314
12.3 Risk Evaluation of Phasor Measurement Units 317
12.4 Risk Evaluation of Regional Communication Networks in WAMCS 325
12.5 Risk Evaluation of Backbone Network in WAMCS 335
12.6 Numerical Results 343
12.7 Conclusions 349
13 ReliabilityCentered Maintenance 351
13.1 Introduction 351
13.2 Basic Tasks in RCM 352
13.3 Example 1: Transmission Maintenance Scheduling 355
13.4 Example 2: Workforce Planning in Maintenance 360
13.5 Example 3: A Simple Case Performed by Hand Calculations 363
13.6 Conclusions 367
14 Probabilistic SpareEquipment Analysis 369
14.1 Introduction 369
14.2 SpareEquipment Analysis Based on Reliability Criteria 370
14.3 SpareEquipment Analysis Using the Probabilistic Cost Method 373
14.4 Example 1: Determining Number and Timing of Spare Transformers 376
14.5 Example 2: Determining Redundancy Level of 500 kV Reactors 381
14.6 Conclusions 387
15 Asset Management Based on Condition Monitoring and Risk Evaluation 389
15.1 Introduction 389
15.2 Maintenance Strategy of Overhead Lines 390
15.3 Replacement Strategy for Aged Transformers 402
15.4 Conclusions 414
16 ReliabilityBased TransmissionService Pricing 417
16.1 Introduction 417
16.2 Basic Concept 418
16.3 Calculation Methods 422
16.4 Rate Design 424
16.5 Application Example 425
16.6 Conclusions 430
17 Voltage Instability Risk Assessment and Its Application to System Planning 431
17.1 Introduction 431
17.2 Method of Assessing Voltage Instability Risk 432
17.3 Tracing and Locating Voltage Instability Risk for Planning Alternatives 447
17.4 Case Studies 448
17.5 Conclusions 456
18 Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment 459
18.1 Introduction 459
18.2 Probabilistic Modeling and Simulation Methods 460
18.3 Procedure 464
18.4 Examples 465
18.5 Conclusions 475
Appendix A Basic Probability Concepts 477
A.1 Probability Calculation Rules 477
A.2 Random Variable and Its Distribution 478
A.3 Important Distributions in Risk Evaluation 479
A.4 Numerical Characteristics 483
A.5 Nonparametric Kernel Density Estimator 485
Appendix B Elements of Monte Carlo Simulation 489
B.1 General Concept 489
B.2 Random Number Generators 490
B.3 Inverse Transform Method of Generating Random Variates 491
B.4 Important Random Variates in Risk Evaluation 492
Appendix C Power Flow Models 497
C.1 AC Power Flow Models 497
C.2 DC Power Flow Models 499
Appendix D Optimization Algorithms 503
D.1 Simplex Methods for Linear Programming 503
D.2 Interior Point Method for Nonlinear Programming 506
Appendix E Three Probability Distribution Tables 511
References 515
Further Reading 523
Index 525
DR. WENYUAN LI, PhD, is recognized as one of the leading authorities on risk assessment of power systems and has been active in power system risk and reliability evaluation for more than twentyfive years. He is a full professor with Chongqing University, China, and a principal engineer at BC Hydro, Canada. He is a fellow of the Canadian Academy of Engineering, the Engineering Institute of Canada, and the IEEE, and received ten international awards due to his significant contributions in the power system risk assessment field.