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Shadow Banking in China: An Opportunity for Financial Reform

ISBN: 978-1-119-26632-7
288 pages
July 2016
Shadow Banking in China: An Opportunity for Financial Reform (1119266327) cover image

Description

An authoritative guide to the rise of Chinese shadow banking and its systemic implications

Shadow Banking in China examines this rapidly growing sector in the Chinese economy, and what it means for your investments. Written by two world-class experts in Chinese banking, including the Chief Advisor to the China Banking Regulatory Commission and former Chairman of the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong, this book is unique in providing true, first-hand perspectives from authorities within the world's largest economy. There is little widely-available information on China's shadow banking developments, and much of it is rife with disparate data, inaccuracies and overblown risks due to definitional and measurement differences. This book clears the confusion by supplying accurate information, on-the-ground context and invaluable national balance sheet analysis you won't find anywhere else.

Shadow banking has grown to be a key source of credit in China, and a major component of the economy. This book serves as a primer for analysts and investors seeking real, useful information about the sector to better inform investment decisions.

  • Discover what's driving the growth of shadow banking in China
  • Learn the truth about both real and inflated risks
  • Dig into popular rhetoric and clarify common misconceptions
  • Access valuable data previously not published in English

Despite shadow banking's critical influence on the Chinese economy, there have been very few official studies and even fewer books written on the subject. Understanding China's present-day economy and forecasting its future requires an in-depth understanding of shadow banking and its inter-relationship with the banking system and other sectors. Shadow Banking in China provides authoritative reference that will prove valuable to anyone with financial interests in China.

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Table of Contents

Foreword by Victor Fung ix

Foreword by Liu Mingkang xiii

Acknowledgments xv

About the Editors xvii

Executive Summary xix

Key Findings and Policy Recommendations xxii

CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1
Andrew Sheng

1.1 References 16

CHAPTER 2 Shadow Banking in the Global Context 17
Cathleen Yi Tin

2.1 Introduction 17

2.2 What is Shadow Banking? 18

2.3 Size of the Global Shadow Banking Industry 20

2.4 Factors for the Rise in Global Shadow Banking 23

2.5 Interconnectedness Between Shadow Banks and the Formal Banking Sector 26

2.6 The Nature of Shadow Banking Differs Across Countries 28

References 32

CHAPTER 3 Shadow Banking within the National Balance Sheet 35
Jodie Hu and Andrew Sheng

3.1 Introduction 35

3.2 Overview of the Chinese National Balance Sheet 37

3.3 Who Owes What in China’s National Balance Sheet? 44

3.4 Zooming in on China’s Sectoral Balance Sheets 47

3.5 Shadow Banks within the National Balance Sheet 74

3.6 Evaluation of the National Balance Sheet Approach 74

3.7 Basic Analytical Conclusions and Policy Recommendations from the NBS Approach 78

References 80

CHAPTER 4 Shadow Banking with Chinese Characteristics 83
Wang Yao

4.1 Introduction 83

4.2 Nature and Scale of Shadow Banking in China 86

4.3 Factors Spurring the Growth of Shadow Banks in China 98

4.4 Different Channels of China’s Shadow Banking 105

4.5 Interconnectivity between Shadow Banking and the Official Banking System 119

4.6 Shadow Banking’s Impact and Regulatory Implications 121

4.7 Conclusion 129

References 129

CHAPTER 5 Inherent Risks in Chinese Shadow Banking 133
Wang Yao and Jodie Hu

5.1 Introduction 133

5.2 Getting to the Heart of the Problem – the Underlying Asset Quality 137

5.3 Non-Financial Corporate Sector (excluding Real Estate Companies) 140

5.4 Real Estate Companies 149

5.5 Local Government Financing Platforms (LGFPs) 154

5.6 Non-performing Assets in the Shadow Banking System 161

References 168

CHAPTER 6 Impact of Technology on China’s Financial System 171
Li Sai Yau and Cathleen Yi Tin

6.1 Introduction 171

6.2 The Rise of e-commerce in China and its Implications 173

6.3 The Rise of e-finance in China and its Implications 175

6.4 The Role of Technological Innovation in China’s Transformation 185

6.5 Rethinking Conventional Financial Regulation and Development 187

6.6 Implications for the Financial Services Industry 190

6.7 Conclusion 191

References 192

CHAPTER 7 Implications for Reform Agenda 195
Andrew Sheng

7.1 Introduction 195

7.2 Ongoing Shadow Banking Reforms in China 198

7.3 Financial Reforms – Looking Beyond Shadow Banking 201

7.4 Immediate-Term Reform Priorities – Diagnosis and Damage Control 202

7.5 Loss Allocation – Medium-Term Measures 204

7.6 Mapping the Future of China’s Financial System: A Potential Long-term Blueprint 208

7.7 Conclusion and Suggestions for Future Research 213

References 214

CHAPTER 8 Conclusion 217
Andrew Sheng

8.1 Introduction 217

8.2 Shadow Banking with Chinese Characteristics 220

8.3 Unique Opportunity for Reform 222

8.4 Reform Agenda Going Forward 223

8.5 Immediate-term Reform Priorities 224

8.6 Long-Term Reforms: A Financial Blueprint 224

APPENDIX A Evolution of International Financial Crises – Lessons for China 227
Li Sai Yau

A.1 Introduction 227

A.2 Comparing the Evolution of International Financial Crises 228

A.3 The Subprime Mortgage and ESDC Crises: Lessons for China 234

A.4 International Comparison of Nonperforming Loans (NPLs) 235

A.5 Conclusion 244

References 244

Index 247

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Author Information

ANDREW SHENG is chief adviser to the China Banking Regulatory Commission, former chairman of the Securities and Futures Commission, Hong Kong and deputy chief executive in HKMA.

NG CHOW SOON is the former director of the governor's office, Bank Negara Malaysia and a Harvard Mason Fellow.

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