Understanding Oil Prices: A Guide to What Drives the Price of Oil in Today's Markets

Preface xv

Quick Reference Guide xix

List of Figures xxiii

List of Tables xxvii

List of Boxes xxix

1 TheWorld Crude Oil Paradoxes 1

2 The Market Events from 2008 to 2011 7

World Energy Policy 8

The Financial Crisis and the Oil Market 10

Fundamentals or Financial Speculation? 17

Demand/Supply of Gasoline and Gasoil 21

WTI – Brent Differential 24

3 Evolution of the Price of Crude Oil from the 1960s up to 1999 29

1960–1980: The Oil Monopoly and the Two Crises in the 1970s 30

The 1980s: The Gradual Disappearance of OPEC 33

The Price War 35

1985–2000: From the Introduction of Brent as an International Benchmark to the Clean Air Act 37

The Suicide of OPEC 40

The Start of the Free Market 41

The Consequences of the Environmental Turnaround 44

4 Changes in the Market for Automotive Fuels 45

Evolution of Environmental Demand 45

Gasoline and its Components 50

Reforming 51

Cracking 52

Alkylation 53

Isomerization 53

Refiners Walk the Tightrope 53

The Fiscal Policy of the Industrialized Countries Regarding Fuels 55

5 World Oil Flow 63

Transformations in the Downstream 66

World Supply Structure 70

6 The Classical Model of the International Oil Market 73

7 The Short-term Model of the International Oil Market 81

8 The Brent Market 89

The Sale and Purchase Contract 90

The Forward Market for Brent (15 day Brent Contract) 94

The IPE Brent Market 100

The Divorce Between Oil Price and Oil 102

9 Principal Uses of the Forward and Futures Markets 105

Tax Spinning 105

Benchmarking 105

Hedging the Price Risks 106

Speculations on Operational Flexibilities at Loading 114

Market Structure: Contango and Backwardation 117

Procedures at the Loading Terminals 119

10 Problems of the Brent Forward Market 123

11 The European Refinery Crisis 131

12 Conclusions:We are Ourselves OPEC 155

Bibliography 163

Index 165