The Warming Papers: The Scientific Foundation for the Climate Change Forecast
January 2011, Wiley-Blackwell
Global warming is arguably the defining scientific issue of modern times, but it is not widely appreciated that the foundations of our understanding were laid almost two centuries ago with the postulation of a greenhouse effect by Fourier in 1827. The sensitivity of climate to changes in atmospheric CO2 was first estimated about one century ago, and the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration was discovered half a century ago. The fundamentals of the science underlying the forecast for human-induced climate change were being published and debated long before the issue rose to public prominence in the last few decades.
The Warming Papers is a compendium of the classic scientific papers that constitute the foundation of the global warming forecast. The paper trail ranges from Fourier and Arrhenius in the 19th Century to Manabe and Hansen in modern times. Archer and Pierrehumbert provide introductions and commentary which places the papers in their context and provide students with tools to develop and extend their understanding of the subject.
The book captures the excitement and the uncertainty that always exist at the cutting edge of research, and is invaluable reading for students of climate science, scientists, historians of science, and others interested in climate change.
Part 1 Climate Physics.
The Greenhouse Effect.
On the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier (1824).
Wagging the Dog.
On the Absorption and radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction John Tyndall (1861).
By the Light of the Silvery Moon.
On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature on the Ground Svante Arrhenius (1896).
The Influence of the 15μ Carban-Dioxide Band on the Atmospheric Infra-red Cooling Rate G. N. Plaas (1956).
The Balance of Energy.
Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity Syukuro Manabe and Richard T. Wetherald (1967).
The Effect of Solar Radiation Variations on the Climate of the Earth M. I. Budyko (1968).
A Global Climatic Model Based on the Energy Balance of the Earth-Atmosphere System William D. Sellers (1968).
The Birth of the General Circulation Model.
The Effects of Doubling the CO2 Concentration on the Climate of a General Circulation Model Syukuro Manabe and Richard T. Wetherald (1975).
Climate Sensitivity: Analysis of Feedback Mechanisms J. Hansen, I. Fung, A. Lacis, J. Lerner, D. Rind, R. Ruedy, G. Russell and P. Stone, (1984).
Climate Responnse to Increasing Levels of Greenhouse Gases and Sulphate Aerosols J. F. B. Mitchell, T. C. Johns, J. M. Gregory and S. F. B. Tett (1995).
Ocean Heat and Committed Warming.
Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications James Hansen, Larissa Nazarenko, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato, Josh Willis, Anthony Del Genio, Dorothy Koch, Andrew Lacis, Ken Lo, Surabi Menon, Tica Novakov, Judith Periwitz, Gary Russell, Gavin A. Schmidt and Nicholas Tausnev (2005).
Taking Earth's Temperature.
Global Temperature Variations Between 1861 and 1984 P. D. Jones, T. M. L. Wigley and P. B. Wright (1986).
Contribution to Stratospheric Cooling to Satellite-Inferred Troposphoric Temperature Trends Qiang Fu, Celeste M. Johanson, Stephen G. Warren and Dian J. Seidel (2004).
Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertanties, and Limitations Michael E. Mann, Raymond Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes (1999).
Ice Sheets and Sea Level.
Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow H. Jay Zwally, Waleed Abdalati, Tom Herring, Kristine Larson, Jack Saba and Konrad Steffen (2002).
The Public Statement.
Man-Made Carbon Dioxide and the ‘Greenhouse’ Effect J. S. Sawyer (1972).
Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment Jule G. Charney, Akio Arakawa, D. James Baker, Bert Bolin, Robert E. Dickinson, Richard M. Goody, Cecil E. Leith, Henry M. Stommel and Carl I. Wunsch (1979).
PART 2 Carbon Cycle.
The Sky is Rising.
The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and its Influence on Temperature G. S. Callendar (1938).
Denial and Acceptance.
Carbon Dioxide Exchange Between Atmosphere and Ocean and the Question of an Increase of Atmospheric CO2 During the Past Decades Roger Revelle and Hans E. Suess (1957).
Distribution of Matter in the Sea and Atmosphere: Changes in the Carbon Dioxide Content of the Atmoshere and Sea due to Fossil Fuel Combustion Bert Bolin and Erik Eriksson (1958).
The Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmoshpere C. D. Keeling (1960).
Is Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuel Changing Man’s Environment? Charles D. Keeling (1970).
One if by Land.
Changes of Land Biota and Their Importance for the Carbon Cycle Bert Bolin (1977).
Observational Constraints on the Global Atmospheric CO2 Budget Pieter P. Tans, Inez Y. Fung and Taro Takahashi (1990).
Acceleration of Global Warming due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model Peter M. Cox, Richard A. Betts, Chris D. Jones, Steven A. Spall and Ian J. Totterdell (2000).
Two if by Sea.
Neutralization of Fossil Fuel CO2 by Marine Calcium Carbonate W. S. Broecker and T. Takahashi (1977).
Effects of Fuel and Forest Conservation on Future Levels of atmospheric Carbon Dioxide James C. G. Walker and James F. Kasting (1992).
Abrupt Deep-Seas Warming, Palaeoceanographic Changes and Benthic Extinctions at the End of the Palaeocene J. P. Kennett and L. D. Stott (1991).
Anthropogenic Carbon and Ocean pH Ken Caldeira and Michael E. Wickett (2003).
Reduced Calcification of Marine Plankton in Response to Increased Atmospheric CO2Ulf Riebesell, Ingrid Zondervan, Bjorn Rost, Phillippe D. Tortell, Richard E. Zeebe and Francois M. M. Morel (2000).
Evidence From Polar Ice Cores for the Increase in Atmospheric CO2 in the Past Two Centuries A Neftel, E. Moor, H. Oeschger and B. Stauffer (1985).
Vostok Ice Core Provides 160,000-Year record of Atmospheric CO2J. M. Barnola, D. Raynaud, Y. S. Korotkevich and C. Lorius (1987).
Ray Pierrehumbert is the Louis Block Professor in Geophysical Sciences, a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union, and was named Chevalier de l'Ordre des Palmes Academiques by the Republic of France. Pierrehumbert studies the physics of climate, especially regarding the long-term evolution of the climates of Earth, Mars.Venus, Titan and extrasolar planets. Pierrehumbert was an author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report (1997-2001), and a member of the National Research Council's Panel on Abrupt Climate Change and its Societal Impacts (2000-2001), and is currently serving on the National Research Council Board on Atmospheric Science and Climate, and the National Research Council Panel on CO2 Stabilization Targets.
"A hefty new volume published by Wiley-Blackwell and edited by the climate scientists David Archer and Raymond Pierrehumbert at the University of Chicago, it's a rich feast for anyone who wants to trace the history of climate science from its earliest origins to the present." (The New York Times, February 2011)
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