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Flying on One Engine: The Bloomberg Book of Master Market Economists (Fourteen Views on the World Economy)

Thomas R. Keene (Editor), Kenneth S. Rogoff (Foreword by), Peter L. Bernstein (Afterword by)
ISBN: 978-1-57660-176-1
264 pages
September 2005
Flying on One Engine: The Bloomberg Book of Master Market Economists (Fourteen Views on the World Economy) (1576601765) cover image


This book offers a window into a realm not often seen even by many sophisticated investors and policymakers—the methods, insights, and predictions of Wall Street’s top market economists. These highly trained, broadly experienced thought leaders operate in the round-the-clock crucible of the world’s financial markets. Their words affect the movement of billions of dollars every day.

Unique among participants in the capital markets, the chief economists at these leading firms combine a command of academic research, rigorous analytical methods for making sense out of a sea of market data, and decades of intuiting, quantifying, and verifying the complexities that connect today's real-time indicators to tomorrow's real-world events. Clarity—the hallmark of their work—is the thread that connects the chapters of this book. This is economics at its most practical and potentially profitable.

The sixteen contributors—a diverse spread of optimists and pessimists, yet realists all—dig deep to discern what lies ahead for the world economy. Whether the angle of attack is foreign trade and finance, demographics and deficits, or monetary theory and government policy, their expert views combine to shape a body of understanding that can help market watchers and market makers reach wise, timely investment and strategic decisions.
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Table of Contents

Foreword (Kenneth S. Rogoff).
About the Contributors.
Introduction (Thomas R. Keene).

1    Reviving Employment Reflects Powerful Labor Market Transformations (John P. Lipsky, Chief Economist, JPMorgan Chase
James E. Glassman, Senior Economist, JPMorgan Chase).

2    The Global Labor Arbitrage (Stephen S. Roach, Chief Economist, Morgan Stanley).

3    America's Optimistic Future (David R. Malpass, Chief Economist, Bear Stearns).

4    How U.S. Fiscal Policy Aids Both U.S. and Global Growth (Kathleen Stephansen, Director of Global Economics, Credit Suisse First Boston).

5    Globalization and Trade--The Role of Proximity, Borders, and Culture (Tim O'Neill, Former Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group).

6    The Rise and Fall of the Dollar (Michael R. Rosenberg, Former Senior Strategist, Harbert Management Corp).

7    Politics and the Economy (Thomas D. Gallagher, Senior Managing Director, International Strategy & Investment Group).

8    The U.S. Fiscal Deficit--Not a Moment to Lose (William C. Dudley, Chief U.S. Economist, Goldman Sachs, Edward F. McKelvey, Senior U.S. Economist, Goldman Sachs).

9     Corporate Profits—Critical for Business Analysis (Richard B. Berner, Chief U.S. Economist, Morgan Stanley).

10  Monetary Policy, Wicksell, and Gold (John Ryding, Chief U.S. Economist, Bear Stearns).      

11  Commodity Price Pass-Through--Finished Before It Began? (David A. Rosenberg, Chief North American Economist, Merrill Lynch).

12  Capital Markets and the Economy (David P. Goldman, Head of Debt Research, Banc of America Securities).

13  Europe's Political and Economic Future (Thomas Mayer, Chief European Economist, Deutsche Bank).

14  The Economic Future of Asia (Robert D. Hormats, Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs International).

Afterword (Peter L. Bernstein).
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Author Information

Thomas R. Keene, CFA, is an editor-at-large who provides economic and investment perspective to all of Bloomberg News--print, radio, and television.

He writes the chart-of-the-day story, available on the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, and also presents it on Bloomberg Television. Keene is the host of the weekday program Bloomberg on the Economy on Bloomberg Radio. He worked in the investment industry for sixteen years before joining Bloomberg.

Mr. Keene is a member of the National Association for Business Economics and the CFA Institute.
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"A great deal of insight . . . myths are busted. Some daily noise on cable chat shows is revealed as superficial nonsense."
- Forbes.com, 9/23/05

"For advice on how to handle the turbulence, Bernanke may want to turn to Flying on One Engine. The book, a compilation of essays by sixteen top market economists, is a comprehensive view of how global economics can roil markets."
- CFO Magazine

"This is a timely, reader-friendly introduction to how the world economy works. The authors are all famous, practical economists and they do a great job of conveying the thrill and the adventure of understanding the economy in a fast-moving world."
- Lord Desai
Professor Emeritus of Economics, The London School of Economics and Political Science

"An intriguing collection of well-written essays on the global economy from some of the best and brightest economic thinkers on Wall Street. A relevant read and a good tool for anyone seeking to connect the day-to-day battles in the business world with the bigger picture."
- Rick Wagoner
Chairman and CEO, General Motors Corp.

"It is as if I entered an applied economics laboratory. This is an excellent compilation of model-free insights into the relevant economic issues that are facing us--or may face us soon. In addition, it has a wealth of facts and data from which the reader can build his own critical view. I came out convinced that there was real economics after all."
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Dean's Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty
University of Massachusetts, Amherst
Author, Fooled by Randomness

"As one particularly concerned for some time about long-term fiscal responsibility, and the sustainability--or should I say unsustainability--of our entitlement programs and our current account deficits, I was particularly pleased to see the very high quality of the commentators and their balanced approach in these crucial fields. As for the other commentary, I learned a lot I did not know."
- Peter G. Peterson
Former Secretary of Commerce
Author, Running on Empty

"Turn to any essay in this innovative collection and you can see how Tom Keene has captured the unique niche that business economists fill in our economy. And because it is a 'real time' record, importantly covering the uncertain period following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, you can see who was right, who was wrong, and, more importantly, why. Lipsky and Glassman go out on a limb and predict the end of the jobless recovery. Malpass finds reasons for optimism following the gloomy data reported by Roach. Dudley and McKelvey draw a vicious circle and make the CBO look like Pollyanna. Always provocative, practical, and timely, but rarely in agreement, these economists' writings are invaluable to policymakers."
- John B. Taylor
Undersecretary for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury, 2001-2005
Raymond Professor of Economics, Stanford University
McCoy Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution

“All too often the insights generated by Wall Street economic thinking appear only in this week's newsletter, or that day's luncheon speech, and then vanish from view. Thomas Keene has gotten some of Wall Street's most prominent economists to step back and assess the global situation. They don't all agree--that’s what makes markets--but their often contrasting perspectives on the economic and financial challenges the world now faces are both interesting and instructive. Many of these analyses will bear reading (and rereading) long after today’s market close."
- Benjamin M. Friedman
William Joseph Maier Professor of Political Economy, Harvard University

"In this volume, sixteen of our most respected financial economists present their analysis of the current and imminent issues facing the global economy. Any reader who delves into these pages is sure to broaden their appreciation of the key factors that are likely to shape the future for years to come."
- Martin L. Leibowitz
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley
Coauthor, Inside the Yield Book

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Flying on One Engine: The Bloomberg Book of Master Market Economists (Fourteen Views on the World Economy) (US $39.95)

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