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Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development

ISBN: 978-3-89578-629-7
400 pages
September 2008
Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development (3895786292) cover image
Is my enterprise really prepared for future business? What can I do to become more competitive? Ulf Pillkahn's book is directed at all of those seeking answers to these questions: executives in strategic positions, business analysts, consultants, trend scouts, marketing and product managers and research engineers.

The book presents the two most powerful tools for future planning: environmental analysis, based on the use of trends, as well as the development of visions of the future through the use of scenarios. While scenarios are generally regarded as a classical management tool, it is expected that the importance of trends will gain tremendously in the coming years. Pillkahn demonstrates how to build robust strategies by aligning the results of environmental and enterprise scenarios, thereby offering entirely new insights.

"Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development" convincingly illustrates why efficient observation of the environment of an enterprise is an absolutely essential factor for strategy development, and why strategy development only works if it is institutionalized as a permanent enterprise process. It also addresses the issue of what information is needed to keep both processes running. The book further describes how trends can be categorized, and offers advice on how to glean the essential information from the vast variety of trends. Information is provided on how scenarios are used as a holistic instrument for creating visions and pictures of the future, and how the results of trend research and scenario techniques find their way into entrepreneurial strategy development. An optimized strategy development process is also outlined. Practical examples and real-life pictures of the future round off Pillkahn's insightful discussion of future business planning.
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Introduction.

Chapter 1. Venturing a Look into the Future.
Moving from the past into the future via the present.

1.1. Reflections on the Future.

1.2. Changes in Our Environment.

1.3. Enterprise Development.

1.4. Present and Future Challenges.

1.5. Enterprise Intelligence Test.

Chapter 2. Detection.
Detecting and Recording Changes in the Enterprise Environment.

2.1. A Plea for Foresight and Prior Action.

2.2. The Enterprise Environment.

2.3. Information as a Basis for Decision Making.

2.4. How We Can Learn to Understand our Environment.

2.5. The Future of Television (I).

Chapter 3. Reflection.
Sorting and Structuring Information.

3.1. Changes in the Environment.

3.2. Stability - Paradigms and Assumptions.

3.3. Changes - Trends.

3.4. Uncertainty.

3.5. Contradictions.

3.6. Indeterminate Elements - Chaos and Wildcards.

3.7. From Hypothesis to Future Element.

3.8. The Future of Television (II).

Chapter 4. Understanding.
Anticipating the Future.

4.1. Memories of the Future.

4.2. The Possibilities and Limits of Foresight.

4.3. Origins and Development of Foresight.

4.4. Pictures of the Future.

4.5. Demarcation and Focus.

4.6. Selecting Future Elements.

4.7. The Actual "Look" into the Future.

4.8. Development of Scenario Frameworks and Scenarios.

4.9. Creating Pictures of the Future.

4.10. Evaluation of Scenarios.

4.11. Pictures of the Future.

4.12. The Future of Television (III).

4.13. Lessons Learned.

Chapter 5. Planning.
Seizing Opportunities and Avoiding Hazards.

5.1. Planning for the Future: An Insurance Policy.

5.2. Strategy Review.

5.3. Developing Strategies in Turbulent Environments.

5.4. Enterprise Analysis.

5.5. Strategy Synthesis.

5.6. Strategic Decisions.

5.7. Examining the Future in the Context of Strategy Development.

5.8. The Future of Television (IV).

Chapter 6. Implementation.
Managing Change.

6.1. The Dimensions of Change.

6.2. The Logic of Change.

6.3. The Reality of Change in Enterprises.

6.4. Elements of Change.

6.5. Orientation in the Process of Change.

6.6. Including the Results of Analysis.

6.7. Reflection, reflection, reflection...

6.8. The Future of Television (V).

Chapter 7. Learning.
Applications and Examples.

7.1. Dealing with Uncertainty in Practice.

7.2. The Future of Petroleum - Introduction.

7.3. The Future of Petroleum - An Information Base.

7.4. Compression and Operation.

7.5. Generating Environment Scenarios.

7.6. Generating Enterprise Scenarios.

7.7. Strategic Implications.

7.8. Example Summary.

Chapter 8. Homework.
What You Should Do.

Chapter 9. Appendix I.
100 Sources of Information.

Chapter 10. Appendix II.
Short Profiles of Selected Methods.

10.1. Macro Environment Analysis.

10.2. Micro Environment Analysis.

10.3. Enterprise Analysis.

10.4. Foresight.

10.5. Strategic Analysis.

10.6. Change Management.

References.

Index.

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ULF PILLKAHN
is Strategy Consultant at Siemens AG in Munich. He is proprietor of a number of patents and inventions. For a few years now he is successfully dealing with innovation management, especially with I and C technologies, strategy development and futurology.
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