 
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 4th Edition
December 2009, ©2010
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The fourth edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.
Preface.
Chapter 1 Introduction.
Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives.
Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART.
Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: Alternatives to SMART.
Chapter 5 Introduction to probability.
Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty.
Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams.
Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems.
Chapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information.
Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment.
Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities.
Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management.
Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals.
Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems.
Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia.
Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty.
Chapter 17 Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions.
Suggested answers to selected questions.
Index.
George Wright is Professor of Management at the Business School, Durham University. He is the founding Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and an Associate Editor of two forecasting journals: International Journal of Forecasting and the Journal of Forecasting. He is also an Associate Editor of Decision Support Systems and a member of the editorial board of Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis.
- A new chapter brings together enhancements of the simple multi-attribute rating method (SMART) and alternatives, such as the AHP, Even-Swaps, and Macbeth.
- Chapter 2 now includes topics like decoy effects and the effect of emotions on decisions.
- The merits of ‘snap decisions’ and choice architectures are assessed
- There is extended discussion of scenario planning, expert systems and linear models.
- New sections cover prediction markets, calibration of probabilities, and implementing the Delphi method.
- Includes new web material such as cases and multiple choice questions.
- coverage of both i) the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and ii) decision analysis methods that are designed to overcome these problems. Other texts focus on only one of these aspects of decision making and, at best, cover the other area superficially
- it explains decision analysis methods without using mathematical notation and tools that are beyond the scope of most business students.
- unrivalled in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods.
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