The first force is the changing demand of consumers.
For sure, consumers' demands are changing fast. But
in which direction? Will they want more and more competitively
priced products, choosing (much as they do today) from
goods laid out on shelves for them to compare? Or will
they seek more and more to be involved in producing
products that meet their needs, in finding solutions
to their problems? Rather than buying food, for instance,
will they look merely for meals to serve for dinner
tonight?
This
is the thinking behind the Prudential insurance company's
new venture into banking. Called Egg, it aims to provide
a tailored solution to each individual's banking needs.
The consumer is involved in designing (and in naming)
that solution.
The
second force is coming from producers who are terrified
that they will be left behind if they are not being
innovative every moment of their corporate lives. Again
this is a force which is pushing in two directions.
Companies are having to decide whether to be generalists,
involved in every link in the chain of processes that
convert raw materials into finished products and services,
or whether to be specialists which concentrate on one
particular link in that chain. Can we expect companies
in the future to be categorised by the things that they
produce (automobiles or soap powder, for instance, as
in the past) or by where they operate in the chain (as
packagers or designers say?).
There
is considerable significance in developments like those
at NatWest and Microsoft, developments which point strongly
towards the Sun Chasing scenario (see below). Although
the cheery optimism of some of Sun Chasing's assumptions
about growth and unemployment may seem at odds with
today's reality, its description of a world in which
technology and globalisation lead to revolutionary changes
in what consumers buy (and how it is delivered to them)
rings true in an increasing number of cases.
All
companies should consider carefully what such a scenario
means for them. But, at the same time, they should keep
a weather eye open for early warning signs suggesting
that another scenario may be about to pre-dominate.
Thunderstrike may yet be too gloomy, but consumers may
soon decide that all that matters to them is that the
price is right. Tailored solutions, they may decide,
are a luxury they can't afford.
DESTINATION
Z SCENARIOS
SUN CHASING
This is a future in which consumers invite global companies
to satisfy their individual needs.
KEIRETSU RISING
In this scenario the world is populated by vast diversified
conglomerates that try to 'own' customers and to satisfy
a broad range of their needs.
ACME
& CO
This is a world in which the price is the key influence
on customers, and all products are like commodities.
The companies that succeed are masters at cutting costs.
EXCELLIANCE
This is a combination of Excellence and Alliance, a
world in which alliances of global specialists come
together to offer standardised products in crowded price-driven
markets.
THUNDERSTRIKE
A scenario that falls quite outside the parameters shaping
the other four. It arises from imagining a complete
disaster, a situation in which the world economy is
in chaos; war is spreading throughout Asia; and an ultra-nationalist
government has just reclaimed Russia. Consumers, as
we know them, have all but disappeared. In their place
remain a few lucky survivors. The events of the past
16 months, and the widespread panic in financial markets,
might suggest that the Thunderstrike scenario is already
upon us, but for the vast majority of the world's consumers
survival is not yet the issue.
