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Seasonal Stock Market Trends: The Definitive Guide to Calendar-Based Stock Market Trading

ISBN: 978-0-470-27043-1
320 pages
December 2008
Seasonal Stock Market Trends: The Definitive Guide to Calendar-Based Stock Market Trading (0470270438) cover image


There is a seasonal bias to the stock market, and by paying attention to the seasonal market tendencies you can gain an edge in the stock market over the long haul. Seasonality offers a practical approach to investing and trading. What better way to learn how to employ seasonal systems than learning from Jay Kaeppel, a master in the analysis of seasonal trends? Kaeppel walks you through this phenomenon that continues to work consistently, providing you with his ultimate seasonal index to make the calendar work for you. Stock Market Seasonals provides a never-before-seen definitive guide that illustrates how to utilize a combination of four basic seasonal tendencies in order to maximize returns.
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Table of Contents


CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Seasonality in the Stock Market.

The Concept of Seasons and Seasonality.

What Is Seasonality?

The Pioneers of Stock Market Seasonality.

Measuring Market Performance throughout This Book.

How to Trade the Dow.

Seasonal Trends to Consider.

Summing Up.

CHAPTER 2 The Month of January.

The First Five Days of January.

The Last Five Days of January.

The January Barometer.

The January Barometer as a Stand-Alone System.

The JayNewary Barometer.

The Ultimate January Barometer System.

The Effect of Compounding.

A Few Words of Warning.

Summing Up.

CHAPTER 3 Holiday Seasonal Trends.

The Holidays.

The Trading Day before Each Holiday.

Two Days before Each Holiday.

Three Days before and after Each Holiday.

The Best Holiday Trading Days.

The Ultimate Holiday System.

The Most Wonderful Week of the Year (Usually).

Summing Up.

CHAPTER 4 Monthly Seasonal Trends.

The Best Day of the Month.

The Trading Days of the Month.

The Worst Trading Days of the Month.

The Best Trading Days of the Month (Part 1).

The Best Trading Days of the Month (Part 2): The Month-End/New-Month Pattern.

The Most Wonderful Time of the Year.

Monthly 10 Combined with the Santa Claus Rally.

The Ultimate Monthly Days System.

One Last Tweak.

Summing Up.

CHAPTER 5 Yearly Seasonal Trends.

Decennial Patterns (Part 1: Ranking the Years).

Decennial Patterns (Part 2: The Best and Worst Years).

Decennial Patterns (Part 3: The Decennial Road Map).

Decennial Tendencies.

Decade-by-Decade Performance.

Intradecade Trends of Note.

Intradecade Cycles Combined.

Summing Up.

CHAPTER 6 Repetitive Time Cycles of Note.

The 212-Week Cycle.

The 40-Week Cycle.

The 53-Day Cycle.

Combining Cycles.

The Ultimate Time Cycles Model.

Summing Up.

CHAPTER 7 Election Cycle Investing.

The Election Cycle: By the Years.

The Election Cycle: By the Months.

Two Other Patterns in the Election Cycle.

The Ultimate Election Cycle System.

Summing Up.

CHAPTER 8 Sell in May and Go Away.

November to May.

What Is MACD?

Using MACD as a Filter.

October through June for the Nasdaq.

The Dead Zones.

The Easiest Market-Beating Strategy in the World.

October of Year 7.

Summing Up.

CHAPTER 9 Putting It All Together.

Building Seasonal Trading Models.

Building the KTI.

Comparing Extreme KTI Readings.

Model 1: The Long-Only Method.

Model 2: The Long-Only Plus Leverage (LOPL) Method.

Model 3: Jay’s Ultimate Seasonal Barometer.

Summing Up.


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Author Information

Jay Kaeppel (Naperville, IL)?is a successful trading strategist for Optionetics, Inc., and has a weekly column titled "Kaeppel's Corner" in which he writes on a variety of trading topics for www.Optionetics.com.? Jay has been profiled in Futures magazine, and Barclays Managed Accounts Report, and is author of The Four Biggest Mistakes in Futures Trading, Four Biggest Mistakes in Option Trading,?and The Option Trader's Guide to Probability, Volatility and Timing,?all of which have achieved the Top 10 List at www.traderslibrary.com. With 18 years of programming experience, Jay has written a variety of software programs, most notably "Option Pro" trading software, voted "Best Option Trading System" six consecutive years in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine.? As Director of Research for Essex Trading Co., Ltd. (1989-2004), he served as a software developer and trading systems designer, and until 2003 he managed futures trading accounts as a CTA,?registering seven consecutive profitable years.? He earned his Bachelor of Business Administration degree from Western Illinois University in 1981.

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