The Energy World is Flat: Opportunities from the End of Peak Oil
The Energy World Is Flat provides a forward-looking analysis of the energy markets and addresses the implications of their rapid transformation. Written by acknowledged expert Daniel Lacalle, who is actively engaged with energy portfolios in the financial space, this book is grounded in experience with the world of high-stakes finance, and relays a realist's perspective of the current and future state of the energy markets. Readers will be brought up to date on the latest developments in the area, and learn the strategies that allow investors to profit from these developments. An examination of the markets' history draws parallels between past and current shifts, and a discussion of technological advancements helps readers understand the issues driving these changes.
Energy has always been at the forefront of the economic agenda, being both the key to and a driver for development and growth. Its centrality to the world of finance makes it imperative for investors and analysts to understand the energy markets, irrespective of where on the wide range of energy spectrum observers they fall. The Energy World Is Flat is a guide to the past, present, and future of these crucial markets, and the strategies that make them profitable. These include:
- Understanding the state of the energy markets, including key developments and changes
- Discovering the ten pillars of a successful energy investment strategy
- Reviewing the history of the energy markets to put recent changes into perspective
- Learning which technologies are driving the changes, and how it will affect investors
The recent energy market changes were both unexpected and so fundamental in nature that they represent a true shift in the energy macro- and microeconomic landscape. Investors and analysts seeking a stronger approach to these markets need the expert guidance provided by The Energy World Is Flat.
Chapter 1 The Mother of All Battles. The Flattening and Globalization of the Energy World 1
Chapter 2 Lessons from the Internet Revolution and the Dotcom Bubble 11
Chapter 3 The 10 Forces that are Flattening the Energy World 31
Chapter 4 Flattener #1 – Geopolitics: The Two Sides of the Energy Security Coin 35
Chapter 5 Flattener #2 – The Energy Reserves and Resources Glut 53
Sorry, No Peak Oil 64
No Peak Gas Either 76
Chapter 6 Flattener #3 – Horizontal Drilling and Fracking 85
Chapter 7 Flattener #4 – The Energy Broadband 103
Chapter 8 Flattener #5 – Overcapacity 117
Chapter 9 Flattener #6 – Globalization, Industrialization, and Urbanization 123
Chapter 10 Flattener #7 – Demand Destruction 131
Chapter 11 Flattener #8 – Demand Displacement 135
The Battle for Transportation Demand 135
The Battle for Electricity and Industrial Demand 148
The Energy Domino 151
Chapter 12 Flattener #9 – Regulation and Government Intervention 159
Regulation vs. Free Markets 160
The War on Pollution and Coal 165
Renewable Energy and the Disinflation of Power Prices 172
Biofuels and Food Inflation 193
Chapter 13 Flattener #10 – Fiscal, Monetary, and Macroeconomic Flatteners 207
The Btu that Broke OPEC’s Back 209
The Oil Tax Weapon 214
Monetary Experiments and the Credit Risk Time Bomb 220
Financial Flows. Let’s Blame the Speculators 232
Chapter 14 Implications and Opportunities in the Financial Markets 245
Concluding Remarks 275
Appendix For A Competitive European Energy Policy 279
DANIEL LACALLE is an economist, fund manager and certified financial analyst specialised in Global Energy with experience in equities, bonds and commodities. He holds a postgraduate degree in IESE and a master-s degree in economy investigation. After working for ten years in the Oil and Gas sector, in charge of exports to the Middle East and Africa as well as Investor Relations, and in the utilities sector, Mr Lacalle joined the financial sector developing his career as a fund manager in some of the largest investment funds in the world, and was voted Top 3 Generalist and Number 1 Pan-European Buyside Individual in Oil & Gas in Thomson Reuters' Extel Survey in 2011, the leading survey among companies and financial institutions. Author of two best-selling books Nosotros los Mercados and Viaje a la Libertad Económica, now in their fifth and fourth editions respectively, as well as The Life In The Financial Markets (Wiley, 2014).
Website www.dlacalle.com and Twitter @dlacalle
DIEGO PARRILLA is a Hedge Fund Manager at BlueCrest Capital Management where he runs a portfolio of liquid macro commodity strategies. Prior to starting his career in fund management in 2011, Diego worked in commodities sales and trading holding, amongst others, the positions of Managing Director, Global Head of Commodity Solutions and Head of Commodities Asia Pacific. Diego holds a Bachelors and Master of Science in Mining and Petroleum Engineering from the Polytechnic University of Madrid in Spain, a Master of Science in Mineral Economics from the Colorado School of Mines in the USA, and a Master of Science in Petroleum Economics and Management by the French Institute of Petroleum in Paris, France. Diego currently resides in Singapore with his wife and three children.
“For industry analysts, this blogger included, it’s a brilliant and realistic assessment of the state of affairs and what potential investors should or shouldn’t look to” (Oilholics Synonymous Report, April 2015)
Against the backdrop of the shale gas revolution in the U.S. and plummeting oil prices globally, how can investors spot where the energy market is heading?
The Energy World is Flat is a new book that analyses today’s rapidly changing international energy markets, forecasting developments and predicting key trends that will inform winning investment strategies for private and professional investors.
The book examines ten forces that are contributing to a more globalised, equalised and flatter energy world and helps readers understand the economic implications of the quest for more affordable, abundant and clean energy.
The book draws parallels between past and current shifts in the energy markets and makes comparisons with the internet revolution and Dotcom bubble, to identify critical lessons that can be applied directly to today’s crude oil and energy markets.
As the global energy marketplace continues to transform in unexpected and fundamental ways, having a profound influence on the energy macro-and mircroeconomic landscape, The Energy World is Flat offers expert guidance for those who want to capitalize on and profit from these ongoing changes.
Written by energy financial experts, Daniel Lacalle and Diego Parilla, the book encourages savvy investors to ignore fashionable trends and employ solid return on capital as a key guideline.