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Dealmaking: Using Real Options and Monte Carlo Analysis



Dealmaking: Using Real Options and Monte Carlo Analysis

Richard Razgaitis

ISBN: 978-0-471-45201-0 April 2004 312 Pages


Applying practical tools to the volatile process of negotiating
Prognosticators apply Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA) to determine the likelihood and significance of a complete range of future outcomes; Real Options Analysis (ROA) can then be employed to develop pricing structures, or options, for such outcomes. Richard Razgaitis' Dealmaking shows readers how to apply these powerful valuation tools to a variety of business processes, such as pricing, negotiating, or living with a "deal," be it a technology license, and R&D partnership, or an outright sales agreement. Dealmaking distinguishes itself from other negotiating guides not only by treating negotiations as an increasingly common situation, but also by presenting a tool-based approach that creates flexible, practical valuation models. This forward-thinking guide includes a variety of checklists, case studies, and a CD-ROM with the appropriate software.
Richard Razgaitis (Bloomsbury, NJ) is a Managing Director at InteCap, Inc. He has over twenty-five years of experience working with the development, commercialization, and strategic management of technology, seventeen of which have been spent in the commercialization of intellectual property.
CHAPTER 1: Introduction.

Why Another Negotiating Book?


High Significance, High Ambiguity Contexts.

The “So What?” Question.

Valuation, Pricing, and Negotiation.

Tangible and Intangible Content/Value and the New Economy.

The iDealmaking Process.

Organization of the Book.

CHAPTER 2: Negotiation People, Language, and Frameworks.

Negotiation People.

A Quest.

The Nut, the Number, the Bogie, and the Toe Tag.

Quantification, Rationality, and Hyperrationality.

CHAPTER 3: The Box and the Wheelbarrow: What Am I Selling (or Buying)?

The Box.

The Wheelbarrow.

iDealmaking’s Spine.

The Term Sheet.

Methods and Tools.

CHAPTER 4: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis and Introduction to Monte Carlo Modeling.

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis.

Scenario (DCF) Analysis.

Monte Carlo Method: An Introduction.

Closure and Application to Negotiation.

CHAPTER 5: Monte Carlo Method.

A Model Cash Flow Template.

Income and Cash Flow Statements: 3M Example.

Monte Carlo Assumption Tools.

Uniform Distribution: Highest Uncertainty Between Certain Bounds.

Triangular Distribution.

The Normal Distribution.

Other Distribution Functions.

Monte Carlo Model of the DCF Template.

Combined CAGR and Cost Ratio Uncertainty Distributions.

Correlating Assumptions.

Additional Assumption Distributions.

Twentieth (and Other) Percentile Valuations.

Comparison of Monte Carlo Results with DCF (RAHR) Method.

Scenario Modeling in Monte Carlo.

Monte Carlo Tools for Determining Variable Significance.

Final Points on the Monte Carlo Model.

Appendix 5A: Crystal Ball Report Corresponding to the Results Presented in Exhibit 5.15 for a Uniform Cost Distribution Assumption.

Appendix 5B: Crystal Ball Report Corresponding to the Results Presented in Exhibit 5.16 for a Double-Humped Cost Distribution Assumption.

CHAPTER 6: Introduction to Real Options.

Perspective 1: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) View of the Six-Scenario Opportunity.

Perspective 2: Real Option View of the Six-Scenario Opportunity.

Perspective 3: A Model for a Buyer’s Counteroffer.

Black-Scholes Equation for Option Pricing.

The Black-Scholes Equation Applied to an Option to a Share of Yahoo!

What Do Equations Represent? “What Is Truth?”.

Using Black-Scholes for an Opportunity Valuation .

Summary of Real Option Realities versus Black-Scholes.

CHAPTER 7: Real Options Applied to Dealmaking.

Beyond Black-Scholes.

Emergence of Real Options Analysis.

Introducing the Binomial Lattice for Real Options.

Calculating Option Values from Binomial Matrices.

Calculating Option Values Using Decisioneering’s Real Options Analysis Toolkit.

Using Real Options Analysis Toolkit Software in Dealmaking.

Calculating (or Estimating) Option Volatility.

Calculating the Option Value of Options on Options.

Conclusions and Observations.

Appendix 7A: Real Options Equations.

CHAPTER 8: Knowledge and Unertainty.

Future Knowledge.

Dealing with Uncertainty.


What About Truth?

CHAPTER 9: Deal Pricing.

Simple Pricing.

Box Pricing.

Wheelbarrow Pricing.

Total Cash Payment.

Cash When.

Cash Maybe.

Cash As.

Cash Substitutes.

Term Sheets.

CHAPTER 10: Negotiation Perspectives and Dynamics.

Negotiation Perspectives.

Negotiating Sequencing.

Issue Explosion.

Negotiating Values.

Deal/Agreement Complexity.

CHAPTER 11: Plan B.

Auctions and Betrothals.

Plan B Analysis and Tools.

Plan B Implementation.

Plan B Caution.

Plan B from the Buyer’s Perspective.

Plan B and Life.

CHAPTER 12: Conclusion.

In Theory, In Practice.

Value Creation by Dealmaking.

A Final (True) Story.