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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 5th Edition

Paul Goodwin, George Wright

ISBN: 978-1-118-74073-6 May 2014 496 Pages


Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation.

This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

Related Resources

Foreword Lawrence D. Phillips vii

Preface ix

Chapter 1 Introduction 1

Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives 15

Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART 33

Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART 65

Chapter 5 Introduction to probability 95

Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty 117

Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams 161

Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems 187

Chapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information 221

Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment 245

Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities 275

Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management 297

Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals 309

Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems 337

Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia 361

Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty 387

Chapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis 423

Chapter 18 Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions 437

Suggested answers to selected questions 469

Index 475

  • Presents and explains decision analysis methods without using mathematical notation and tools that are beyond the scope of most of the book’s target audience - practicing managers and business students
  •  Rigorous in its presentation of methods - the material is covered in sufficient depth to allow readers to apply methods appropriately and with full knowledge of their rationale, assumptions and limitations.
  • Provides a broad coverage of decision analysis methods
    Features topics that are rarely, if ever, found in other textbooks, including explanations of special methods that are designed to handle resource allocation and negotiation problems and a demonstration of how decision analysis can be used in tandem with scenario planning in strategic decision making.