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Earthquake Prediction: An International Review

Earthquake Prediction: An International Review

David W. Simpson (Editor), Paul G. Richards (Editor)

ISBN: 978-1-118-66574-9

Mar 2013

680 pages

Select type: O-Book


Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Maurice Ewing Series, Volume 4.

From May 12 to May 16, 1980, eighty-eight scientists from eleven countries attended a Symposium on Earthquake Prediction at Mohonk Mountain House, Mohonk, New York. This was the third in a biennial series honoring Maurice Ewing, first director of Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory. The Symposium was one of several events that were held in 1980 to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences at Columbia University. The two earlier Ewing Symposia, on island arcs and deep sea drilling, reflected Ewing's lifelong interest in the structure and evolution of the ocean floor. In the Third Ewing Symposium we touch another area—earthquake seismology—that played an important part in Ewing's career. Work on surface waves and long-period seismology under Ewing's direction during the 1950's and 1960's, along with his exploration of the earth beneath the oceans, provided much of the framework on which current ideas on earthquake generation and plate tectonics are based.

Preface vii

Seismicity Patterns

The Nature of Seismicity Patterns Before Large Earthquakes
H. Kanamori  1

Seismic Potential for the World's Major Plate Boundaries: 1981
S. P. Nishenko and W. R. McCann  20

Precursory Seismicity Patterns: Stalking the Mature Seismic Gap
R. E. Haberman  29

Seismicityin Western Japan and Long-Term Earthquake Forecasting
K. Mogi  43

Evaluation of the Forecast of the 1978 Oaxaca, Southern Mexico Earthquake Based on a
Precursory Seismic Quiescence
M. Ohtake, T. Matumoto, and G. V. Latham  53

Plate Subduction and Prediction of Earthquakes Along the Middle America Trench
K. MeNally 63

Rupture Zones and Repeat Times of Great Earthquakes Along the Alaska-Aleutian Arc, 1784-1980
L. R. Sykes, J. B. Kisslinger, L. S. House,  J. N. Davies, and K. H. Jacob  73

Identification of a Possible Seismic Gap Near Unalaska Island, Eastern Aleutians, Alaska
L. S. House, L . R. Sykes,  J. N. Davies, and K. H. Jacob  81

Seismicity and Tectonics of the Central New Hebrides Island Arc
B. L. Isacks, R . K. Cardwell, J .-L. Chatelain, M . Barazangi,  J.-M. Marthelot, D . Chinn, and R. Louat  93

Seismicity Patterns in China
S. Xu and P. Shen  117

The 1960 San Francisco Earthquake and the Seismic Cycle
W. L. Ellsworth, A. G. Lindh, W. H. Prescott, and D. G. Herd  126

Seismicity Pattern in the South Iceland Seismic Zone
P. Einarsson, S. Bjornsson, G. Foulger, R . Stefansson and T. Skaftadomr  141

Earthquake Hazard in the Hellenic Arc
M. Wyss and M. Baer  153

Short- and Long-Term Patterns of Seismicity in Korasan, Iran
M. Niazi  173

Geological and Seismological Evidence for Recurrence Times Along Major Fault Zones

A Review of Geological Evidence for Recurrence Times of Large Earthquakes
K. E. Sieh  181

Active Faults, Paleoseismology and Earthquake Hazards in the Western United States
R. E. Wallace  279

Repeat Times of Great Earthquakes Along Simple Plate Boundaries
L. R. Sykes and R. C. Quittmeyer  217

Earthquake Prediction in the Intermountain Seismic Belt  - An Intraplate Extensional regime
W. J. Arabasz and R. B. Smith  248

Great Detachment Earthquakes Along the Himalayan Arc and Long-Term Forecasting
L. Seeber and J. Armbruster  259

Active Faults and Damaging Earthquakes in Japan--Macroseismic Zoning and Precaution Fault Zones
T. Matsuda  280

Geological Analysis of Seismicity Along the Tancheng-Lujiang Fault Zone in East China
Z. Fang, M. Ding, F. Ji, and H. Xian  291

Specification of a Soon-to-Occur Seismic Faulting in the Tokai District, Central Japan, Based
Upon Seismotectonics
K. Ishibashi  297

Long and Intermediate-Term Precursors to Earthquakes: Seismic Long-and Intermediate-Term Seismic Precursors to Earthquakes--State-of-the-Art
M. Reyners  333

Changes in the Seismicity  and Focal Mechanism of Small Earthquakes Prior to an Ms 6.7
Earthquake in the Central Aleutian Island Arc
S. Billington, E. R. Engdahl, and S. Price  348

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of the Variations of Seismic Velocity Ratio Anomalies
D. Feng and J. Gu  357

Velocity Changes in the Charlevoix Region, Quebec
G. G. R. Buehbinder  367

A Concentration Criterion for Seismically Active Faults
G. A. Sobolev and A.D. Zavialov  377

Earthquake Prediction Studies in South Carolina
P. Talwani  381

Long and Intermediate-Term Precursors to Earthquakes: Non-Seismic Crustal Deformation Studies and Earthquake Prediction Research
W. Thatcher  394

Delays in the Onset Times of Near-Surface Strain and Tilt Precursors to Earthquakes
R. Bilham  411

Neotectonic Deformation, Near Surface Movements and Systematic Errors in U.S. Releveling
Measurements: Implications for Earthquake Prediction
R. Reilinger and L. Brown  422

Role of Elevation-Dependent Errors in the Accuracy  of Geodetic Leveling in the Southern California Uplift
R. S.  Stein  441

Height Dependent Errors in Southern California Leveling
D. D. Jackson, W. B. Lee and C.-C. Liu  457

A Search for Long-Term Earthquake Precursors in Gravity Data in the Charlevoix Region, Quebec
A. Lambert and J. O. Liard  473

Gravity Profiles in Southern California 
J. F. Evernden  483

Short-Term and Immediate Precursors to Earthquakes

Some Features of Medium- and Short-Term Anomalies Before Great Earthquakes 
G. Zhang and Z. Fu  497

Y. Kishimoto
On Precursory Phenomena Observed at the Yamasaki Fault, Southwest  Japan, As a
Test-Field for Earthquake Prediction
Y. Kishimoto  510

Some Empirical Rules on Foreshocks  and Earthquake Prediction
K. Yamashina  517

Precursory Changes in Groundwater Prior to the 1978I zu-Oshima-Kinkai Earthquake
H. Wakita 527

The Detection of Nanoearthquakes
T. Teng and T. L. Henyey  533

A Preliminary Analysisof Reported Changes in Ground Water and Anomalous Animal
Behavior Before the 4  February 1975 Haicheng Earthquake
Q. Deng, J. Pu, L. M. Jones and P. Molnar  543

Fundamental Studies, Laboratory Investigations and Models

A Probabilistic Synthesis of Precursory Phenomena
K. Aki  566

A Framework for Earthquake Prediction
C. Lomnitz and J. Lomnitz-Adler  575

An Asperity Model of Great Earthquake Sequences
T. Lay and H. Kanamori  579

Fluid Flow Accompanying Faulting: Field Evidence and Models  
R. H. Sibson  593

Acoustic Emission During Stress Corrosion Cracking in Rocks
B. K. Atkinson and R. D. Rawlings  605

A Slow Earthquake Sequence Following the Izu-Oshima Earthquake of 1978 
L S. Sacks,  A. T. Linde, J. A. Snoke and S. Suyehiro  617

Rupture Mechanics of Plate Boundaries
A. Nur  629

Reviews of National Programs

Earthquake Prediction Program in Japan
K. Mogi 635

Strategy  of Earthquake  Prediction in China (A Personal View)
G.-X. Gu  667

Development and Strategy of the Earthquake Prediction Program in the United States 
R. L. Wesson and J. R. Filson  671