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Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything

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Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything

John F. Mauldin, Jonathan Tepper

ISBN: 978-1-118-82792-5 November 2013 336 Pages

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Praise for Endgame

"This is an extremely powerful, sobering, well-written and highly accessible book. It will demonstrate to you why there are no painless solutions to the mounting debt problems around the world—something that too many people are yet to realize. It will take you on a well-documented journey through the debt supercycle, making stops around the world and at critical junctures. And it is a must-read for anyone wishing to understand the global debt dynamics and ways to protect against its bad consequences."
—Mohamed A. El-Erian, CEO, PIMCO, and author of When Markets Collide

"No one has thought more creatively about the economy. Mauldin's weekly newsletter is a must-read, and his book is even more important if you want to understand a rapidly changing world."
—Newt Gingrich, Former Speaker of the House of Representatives

"Successful investors explore all possibilities. You should read this book so you can succeed in case the Endgame is our future."
—Jim Rogers, author of A Gift to My Children

"I read everything John Mauldin writes. He travels the world and shares his financial stories like a good friend sharing a drink. Mauldin is that rarity—a skeptical optimist—who calls 'em straight and rewards his clients and fans."
—Rich Karlgaard, Publisher and Columnist, Forbes magazine

"There's clearly something important going on in the world economy. Something big. Something powerful and dangerous. But something as yet undefined and uncertain. We are all feeling our way around in the dark, trying to figure out what it is. John Mauldin must have night vision glasses. He does an excellent job of seeing the obstacles. You should read this book before you knock over a lamp and stumble over the furniture."
—William Bonner, President and CEO, Agora Inc., and author of Dice Have No Memory and Empire of Debt

"Endgame is not only a highly readable and informative account of the causes of the recent global economic and financial meltdown, but it also provides investors with a concrete investment strategy from which they can benefit while this final act in financial history is being played out."
—Marc Faber, Managing Director, Marc Faber, Ltd., and Editor, Gloom, Boom & Doom Report

Acknowledgments xiii

Introduction: Endgame 1

Part One: The End of the Debt Supercycle 11

Chapter 1: The Beginning of the End 15

Chapter 2: Why Greece Matters 31

Chapter 3: Let’s Look at the Rules 45

Chapter 4: The Burden of Lower Growth and More Frequent Recessions 73

Chapter 5: This Time Is Different 91

Chapter 6: The Future of Public Debt: An Unsustainable Path 109

Chapter 7: The Elements of Deflation 133

Chapter 8: Inflation and Hyperinflation 157

Part Two: A World Tour: Who Will Face Endgame First? 175

Chapter 9: The United States: The Mess We Find Ourselves In 181

Chapter 10: The European Periphery: A Modern-Day Gold Standard 215

Chapter 11: Eastern European Problems 233

Chapter 12: Japan: A Bug in Search of a Windshield 247

Chapter 13: The United Kingdom: How to Quietly Inflate Away Your Debt 261

Chapter 14: Australia: Could It Follow in Ireland's Footsteps? 273

Chapter 15: Unintended Consequences: Loose Monetary Policies and Emerging Markets 283

Conclusion: Investing and Profiting from Endgame 293

Epilogue: Some Final Thoughts 297

Notes 301

About the Authors 309

Index 311