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Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science

Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science

Ian T. Jolliffe (Editor), David B. Stephenson (Editor)

ISBN: 978-0-470-86441-8

Aug 2003

254 pages

Select type: E-Book



This handy reference introduces the subject of forecast verification and provides a review of the basic concepts, discussing different types of data that may be forecast.

Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity (predictand), then looks at some of the relationships between economic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the key concepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification that receive the most attention in other disciplines.

The book concludes with a discussion on the most important topics in the field that are the subject of current research or that would benefit from future research.

  • An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life case studies
  • An up-to-date and practical introduction to the different techniques and an examination of their strengths and weaknesses
  • Practical advice given by some of the world?s leading forecasting experts
  • Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and its interpretation
  • Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical and mathematical definition of commonly used terms
List of Contributors.


1. Introduction (I. Jolliffe & D. Stephenson).

2. Basic Concepts (J. Potts).

3. Binary Events (I. Mason).

4. Categorical Events (R. Livezey).

5. Continuous Variables (M. Déqué).

6. Verification of Spatial Fields (W. Drosdowsky & H. Zhang).

7. Probability and Ensemble Forecasts (Z. Toth, et al.).

8. Economic Value and Skill (D. Richardson).

9. Forecast Verification: Past, Present and Future (D. Stephenson & I. Jolliffe).



Author Index.

Subject Index.

"This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004)

"…a good mixture of theory and practical applications…well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005)