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Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles



Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles

Michael P. Niemira, Philip A. Klein

ISBN: 978-0-471-84544-7 February 1994 544 Pages

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Gain the knowledge and skills that can help you exploitinstability. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles No book canhelp you construct foolproof forecasting systems that will ensureyou'll accurately predict economic turning points every time. Butwith Niemira and Klein's Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycleson hand, you'll be able to significantly strengthen your ability tomeasure, monitor, and forecast important fluctuations. Parthistory, it provides you with essential background material on thecharacteristics and causes of economic volatility. It offersaccessible coverage of the classical business cycle, the five basictypes of economic cycles as determined by leading economists, andevolving ideas on the forces driving instability--ranging fromsimple unicausal theories, more complex Keynesian theory, to newclassical macroeconomics. In addition, its concise review ofAmerica's economic past highlights the lessons that can be learnedfrom the various cycles experienced since shortly before World WarII. Part handbook, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cyclespresents the full spectrum of statistical techniques used tomeasure cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other vital changes,offering you step-by-step guidance on applying a specific methodand detailing its uses and limitations. It goes on to show how youcan adapt particular techniques to assess, track, andpredict:
* Industry cycles--including an objective, tailor-made forecastingtool
* Regional business cycles--including a survey of regionalindicators
* International business cycles--with an international businesscycle chronology
* Inflation cycles--plus "12 little-known facts" about this complexcycle
* Financial cycles--covering credit, monetary, and interest ratecycles
* Stock market cycles--with advice on achieving more disciplinedtrading
Based on outstanding scholarship and years of practical experience,Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles will serve as aninvaluable tool for practitioners like you whosedecision-making--and profit margin--depend on accurately assessingtoday's often uncertain economic climate. "Forecasting Financialand Economic Cycles provides a lively survey of the many ways thatcyclical economic activity has been dissected and analyzed. Withthis book, an astute reader may even be able to anticipate the nextcyclical turn." --Samuel D. Kahan Chief Economist Fuji Securities,Inc. "The definitive book on the most important and enduringfeature of an often mist-bound economic landscape: the businesscycle." --Alfred L. Malabre, Jr. Economics Editor The Wall StreetJournal "Niemira and Klein cover both the theory of economic cyclesand methods for forecasting them. They provide one of the mostcomprehensive and current reviews of academic studies of economiccycles to be found anywhere." --Anthony F. Herbst Professor ofFinance The University of Texas at El Paso "This book succeeds as acomprehensive, balanced, and accessible treatment of fluctuationsin economic and financial activity. It should prove useful to allthose in industry and finance who wish to understand and analyzethe trends and changes in the modern dynamic economy." --VictorZarnowitz Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance University ofChicago

The Nature of Economic Cycles.

Business Cycle Theory.


Measurement, Monitoring, and Forecasting Cycles.



Business Cycle History.


Industry Cycles.

Regional Business Cycles.

International Business Cycles.

The Inflation Cycle.

Financial Cycles.

Stock Market Cycles.


The Future of the Business Cycle--Alive and Well butDifferent.