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Forecasting and Management of Technology

Forecasting and Management of Technology

Alan L. Porter, A. Thomas Roper, Thomas W. Mason, Frederick A. Rossini, Jerry Banks

ISBN: 978-0-471-51223-3

Apr 1991

464 pages

Select type: Hardcover

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Description

Consistently practical in its coverage, the book discusses general issues related to forecasting and management; introduces a variety of methods, and shows how to apply these methods to significant issues in managing technological development. With numerous exhibits, case studies and exercises throughout, it requires only basic mathematics and includes a special technology forecasting TOOLKIT for the IBM and compatibles, along with full instructions for installing and running the program.
OVERVIEW AND PRINCIPLES.

Management, Technology, and the Future.

Principles of Sociotechnical Change.

Technology Planning.

Forecasting.

Managing the Forecasting Project.

METHODS.

General Methodological Issues.

The Stimulation of Creativity.

Monitoring.

Basic Tools for Quantitative Trend Extrapolation.

Extrapolating Technological Trends.

Expert Opinion.

Simulation.

Scenarios.

Economic Forecasting and Analysis.

ASSESSMENT TO MANAGE TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE.

Impact Assessment: General Issues and the Identification of the Impacts of Technology.

Analysis of the Impacts of Technologies.

Benefit/Cost and Risk Analysis.

Evaluation of Technologies and Their Impacts.

Managing the Present from the Future.

Appendices.

Bibliography.

Index.
Supplementary Software
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