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Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader


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Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader

Thomas N. Bulkowski

ISBN: 978-1-118-46420-5 December 2012 320 Pages


Comprehensive coverage of the four major trading styles

Evolution of a Trader explores the four trading styles that people use when learning to trade or invest in the stock market. Often, beginners enter the stock market by:

  • Buying and holding onto a stock (value investing). That works well until the trend ends or a bear market begins. Then they try
  • Position trading. This is the same as buy-and-hold, except the technique sells positions before a significant trend change occurs.
  • Swing trading follows when traders increase their frequency of trading, trying to catch the short-term up and down swings. Finally, people try
  • Day trading by completing their trades in a single day.

This series provides comprehensive coverage of the four trading styles by offering numerous tips, sharing discoveries, and discussing specific trading setups to help you become a successful trader or investor as you journey through each style.

Trading Basics takes an in-depth look at money management, stops, support and resistance, and offers dozens of tips every trader should know.

Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading discusses when to sell a buy-and-hold position, uncovers which fundamentals work best, and uses them to find stocks that become 10-baggers—stocks that climb by 10 times their original value.

Swing and Day Trading reveals methods to time the market swings, including specific trading setups, but it covers the basics as well, such as setting up a home trading office and how much money you can make day trading.

Preface xi

Acknowledgments xvii

Chapter 1 introduction to Buy and hold 1

What Is Buy and Hold? 2

Who Should Buy and Hold? 2

My Numbers: Background and Terms 3

Now What? 3

Chapter 2 Stock Selection 5

What Comes After Large Price Moves? 6

Myth: Stocks That Drop Least in a Bear Market Then Soar 7

Stock Selection the Easy Way 8

Two Tips for Stock Selection 9

Buy Fallen Angels 10

What Chart Patterns Appear Before Mergers and Buyouts? 10

What Are Insiders Doing? 13

Chapter 3 Book Value 17

Book Value Defined 18

Value Assets Properly 18

Investing Using Book Value 19

When Is Book Value Important? 19

The Value of Hidden Assets 20

Limits of Book Value 21

Buybacks Lower Book Value 22

Historical Research 22

Price to Book Value: A Good Measure 24

Small Caps: Best Choice 25

Low Stock Price Rules! 27

Book Value and Return on Equity 28

What Is the Best Price to Book Value? 29

Combinations and Performance 30

Trading Strategy: Beating the Dow 31

The Eight-Stock Setup 32

Hold Time for Best Results 34

Chapter 4 Capital Spending 37

Is Decreasing Capital Spending the Holy Grail? 37

Capital Spending Trends versus Performance 38

Frequency Distribution 39

Performance by Market Cap 40

Chapter 5 Cash Flow 43

Historical Research Review 44

Cooking the Books 45

The Numbers 46

Is Increasing Cash Flow Good? 46

Performance by Market Cap 48

Chapter 6 Dividends 51

Stock Dividends: An Explanation 52

Historical Research Review 52

High Yield, High Performance? 53

Testing: Yield and Payout Ratio 54

Which Is Best: Dividends or No Dividends? 55

Surprise: Dividend Cuts Work! 55

When Disaster Strikes 57

Performance by Market Cap 58

Chapter 7 Long-Term Debt 61

The Numbers 61

Is Debt Good? 62

Sinking Ship: Taking on Debt 62

Debt by Market Capitalization 63

Chapter 8 Price-to-Earnings Ratio 67

History Lesson 67

Do Low P/E Stocks Outperform? 68

P/E Trends Down: Good or Bad? 69

Price and Earnings Combinations: Yawn 69

Buy Small Caps with Low P/E 70

High P/E: Time to Sell? 71

Three P/E Tips 71

Chapter 9 Price-to-Sales Ratio 73

Good Benchmark: PSRs Below 1.0 74

PSR Trend: Down Is Best 75

Small Caps, Small PSRs Rule! 75

Checklist: PSRs by Industry 77

Chapter 10 Return on Shareholders’ Equity 81

Low ROE Stocks Outperform: Why? 82

ROE Trend Over Time: Yawn 83

ROE Performance by Market Capitalization 83

Chapter 11 Shares Outstanding 85

Performance versus Shares Outstanding 85

Event Pattern: Dutch Auction Tender Offers 87

Should You Sell? 87

Sell at What Price? 90

Event Pattern: Common Stock Offerings 91

Performance and Market Capitalization 93

Chapter 12 Fundamental Analysis Summary 95

Performance Rank: One-Year Hold 95

Performance Rank: Three-Year Hold 97

Performance Rank: Five-Year Hold 99

Chapter 13 How to Double Your Money 101

How Long to Double? 101

What Is the Best Buy Price? 102

Which Market Caps Do Best? 103

Focus on Fundamentals: Which Are Best? 104

Warning: Losses Ahead. What You Need to Know 110

Testing the Setup 112

Chapter 14 Finding 10-Baggers 115

How Long to 10x? 116

What Is Highest Starting Price? 116

What Happens the First Year? 117

Rising Over Time: How Fast? 118

10‐Baggers by Market Cap 119

Fundamental Ratios Common to 10‐Baggers 119

Industries Most Likely to Make 10‐Baggers 127

The Most Popular Years for 10‐Baggers 128

Surprising Finding about 10‐Bagger Losses 129

Backward Testing 129

Chapter 15 Trading 10-Baggers 133

10‐Bagger Birth 133

Life of a 10‐Bagger 139

10‐Bagger Death 150

Chart Patterns in 10‐Baggers 152

Chapter 16 Selling Buy and Hold_161

The Weinstein Setup 161

Example: The Southwest Airlines Trade 165

Example: Savient Pharmaceuticals 167

1‐2‐3 Trend Change for Downtrends 168

1‐2‐3 Trend Change for Uptrends 170

The Cloudbank Setup 172

Using Trailing Stops to Sell 178

Timely Trend‐Line Exits 180

Can Moving Averages Help? 181

Follow Insider Transactions 183

Selling: Two Ratio Tips 184

Selling Down from a High 185

Chapter 17 Fundamentals: What I Use 189

Two Book Value Tips 190

Do Not Get Singed by Burn Rate 190

Drop Capital Spending! 191

Current Ratio 2.0 191

Prospecting for Growth Using Dividends 191

Rising Earnings, Net Profit 192

P/E Ratio versus Industry 192

Litigation: Stop Pissing People Off! 193

Avoid Too Much Long‐Term Debt 193

Market Capitalization: Big Returns by

Going Small 194

Research Spending 194

Sales? Think Money 195

Price‐to‐Sales Ratio: What About Debt? 195

Stock Price: 5 to 20 195

Volume: Thin Ice Ahead! 196

Chapter 18 Introduction to Position Trading 199

What Is Position Trading? 199

Who Should Position Trade and Why? 200

What Position Trading Will Not Do 202

Example Position Trade 202

Chapter 19 Getting Started in Position Trading 207

Check the News or Lose! 208

Trend? What Trend? 209

Trade with the Primary Trend 211

Take Your Pick: Bottom Fishing or Momentum? 212

What Is Market Influence on Stocks? 213

What Chart Patterns Are Best for Position Trades? 214

Busted Chart Patterns Revisited 216

Trading Example: Finding Value in Disaster 218

Chapter 20 Ten Factors Make Chart Patterns Work 223

What Is a Double Bottom? 224

Ten Factors Revealed 226

Scoring System Checklist 232

Scoring Performance 232

Higher Scores Work Best 234

Case Study: Stillwater Mining 235

Case Study: LSB Industries 237

Case Study: Lumber Liquidators 238

Chapter 21 Three Winning Trades and a Funeral 243

The Intel Fiasco 244

Hudson Highland Hiccup 245

CNO Financial Group 248

Complete Production Services 250

Chapter 22 What Not to Do: Three Botched Trades 255

Medivation: Selling Too Late 255

Coldwater Creek: Selling Too Soon 258

Hovnanian: Selling at the Bottom 260

Chapter 23 What We Learned 265

Visual Appendix of Chart Patterns 283

Bibliography 289

About the Author 293

Index 295

“The three books in this series were written for people unfamiliar with the inner workings of the stock market, but will still curl the toes of professionals, too. Research is used to prove the ideas discussed, but is presented in an easy to understand and light-hearted manner. You will find the books to be as entertaining as they are informative and packed with moneymaking tips and ideas. Use the ideas presented here to hone your trading style and improve your success. Whether you are a novice who has never purchased a stock but wants to, or a professional money manager who trades daily, these books are a necessary addition to any market enthusiast’s bookshelf.”
Alan Battista, Book Review