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Geocomplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes



Geocomplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes

John B. Rundle (Editor), Donald L. Turcotte (Editor), William Klein (Editor)

ISBN: 978-0-875-90978-3 January 2000 American Geophysical Union 284 Pages

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Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 120.

Earthquakes in urban centers are capable of causing enormous damage. The January 16, 1995 Kobe, Japan earthquake was only a magnitude 6.9 event and yet produced an estimated $200 billion loss. Despite an active earthquake prediction program in Japan, this event was a complete surprise. Similar scenarios are possible in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and other urban centers around the Pacific plate boundary. The development of forecast or prediction methodologies for these great damaging earthquakes has been complicated by the fact that the largest events repeat at irregular intervals of hundreds to thousands of years, resulting in a limited historical record that has frustrated phenomenological studies. The papers in this book describe an emerging alternative approach, which is based on a new understanding of earthquake physics arising from the construction and analysis of numerical simulations. With these numerical simulations, earthquake physics now can be investigated in numerical laboratories. Simulation data from numerical experiments can be used to develop theoretical understanding that can be subsequently applied to observed data. These methods have been enabled by the information technology revolution, in which fundamental advances in computing and communications are placing vast computational resources at our disposal.

J. B. Rundle, D.L. Turcotte, and William Klein  ix

John B . Rundle, Donald L. Turcotte, and William Klein  1


Deterministic Chaos in two State-variable Friction Sliders and the Effect of Elastic Interactions
Thorsten W. Becker  5

Spring-block Models of Seismicity: Review and Analysis  of a Structurally Heterogeneouos  Model
Coupled to a Viscous Asthenosphere
]on D. Pelletier  27

Statistical Anlysis  of a Model  for Earthquake Faults With Long-range Stress Transfer
W. Klein, M. Anghel,  C. D. Ferguson, J. B. Rundle,  and J. S. S. Martins 43

Traveling Wave and Rough Fault Earthquake Models:  Illuminating  the Relationship Between
Slip Deficit and E vent Frequency Statistics
Susana J . Gross  73

A Statistical Physics Approach to Earthquakes
D. L. Turcotte, W. I. Newman, and A. Gabrielov  83

Earthquakes: Friction or a Plastic Instability?
D.C. Roberts and D. L. Turcotte  97

Lattice Solid Simulation of the Physics of Fault Zones and Earthquakes:The Model,
Results, and Directions
P. Mora, D. Place, S. Abe, and S. Jaum  105


Dynamics of Seismicity Patterns in Systems of Earthquake Faults
John B. Rundle, W. Klein, Kristy Tiampo and Susanna Gross  127

Constraints from Field and Laboratory Data

Microscopic and Macroscopic Physics of Earthquakes
Hiroo Kanamori and Thomas H. Heaton  147

Depth Dependent Rupture Properties in Circum-Pacific Sub-duction  Zones
Susan L. Bilek and Thorne Lay  165

Effects of Loading Rate and Normal Stress on Stress Drop and Stick-Slip Recurrence Interval
Stephen L. Karner and Chris Marone 187

Changeisn EarthquakSei ze-FrequenDcyis tributionUsn derlyinAgc celeratinSge ismic
Moment/Energy Release
Steven C. Jaum  199

Observation of Systematic  Variations in Non-local Seismicity Patterns from Southern California
K. F. Tiampo, J. B. Rundle, S. McGinnis, S. J. Gross, and W. Klein  21

Computational Methods

Introducinag New Paradigm for Computational Earth Science: A Web-Object-Based Approach
to Earthquake Simulations
Geoffrey C. Fox, Ken Hurst, Andrea Donnellan, and Jay Parker 219

Modeling Complex Crustal Processes
William J. Bosl  245

Crustal Fluids and Earthquakes
William J. Bosi and Amos Nur  267