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Health and Health Care 2010: The Forecast, The Challenge, 2nd Edition



Health and Health Care 2010: The Forecast, The Challenge, 2nd Edition

Institute for the Future

ISBN: 978-0-470-93252-0 June 2010 Jossey-Bass 428 Pages

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Health and Health Care 2010, Second Edition, offers well-researched coverage of health insurance, managed care, health care providers, the health workforce, medical technologies, information technologies, consumerism, public health services, mental health, child health, health of the elderly, chronic care, and health behaviors, and more. Each of the volume's topics starts with historical background leading into the contemporary setting and is followed with predicted short-term developments and forecasts reaching to the year 2010. Acknowledging the difficulty of long-term predictions, even by experts, the projections are cast as "stormy," "long and winding," or "sunny."



Abbreviations and Acronyms.


Chapter 1: Health and Health Care Forecast.

Executive Summary.


Demographics: Patients, Populations, and New Consumers.

Payers and Health Care Costs.

Health Plans and Insurers.

Hospitals and Physicians.

Medical and Information Technologies.

Care Processes and Medical Management.

Public Health.

Three Scenarios.

Chapter 2: Demographic Trends and the Burden of Disease.

Increasing Diversity.

The United States Population Is Growing Older and Living Longer.

The Face of America Continues to Change-Diversity Is Increasing.

Household Income Is Increasing, but the Gap Between the Extremes Is Widening.

The Shifting Burden of Disease: Chronic Diseases, Mental Illness, and Lifestyle Behaviors.

Chapter 3: Health Care’s Demand Side.

Changing Trends in Growth Rates 1960–2010.

Historical Trends.

The Issues: What Drives Cost Increases?

Market Dynamics.

The Forecast: Real Cost Growth at 1 Percent.

The Significance of Our Cost Forecast for the Rest of Our 10-Year Outlook.

Wild Cards.

Chapter 4: Health Insurance.

The Three-Tiered Model.

Scope of Employment-Based Coverage.

The Issues: How Will People Receive Health Insurance?

The Forecast: Source of Insurance—Where Are the People? . . . .

. . . and What Type of Insurance Will They Have?

Tiering Will Increase.

Wild Cards.

Chapter 5: Managed Care.

Experiments in Reinvention.

The Issues: Managed Care is out of Balance.


Regulation May Have Cost Consequences.

Potential Barriers to IT Implementation.

The Forecast: Experiments in Reinvention.

Managed Care 2010: Patterns of Power.

Wild Cards.

Chapter 6: Health Care Providers.

Themes of the Future Delivery System.


Reimbursement Models: Between Finance and Delivery.

Care Delivery Organizations for the Next Decade.

Medical Management: The New Arena of Activity.

What Happens to Hospitals?

Wild Cards.

Chapter 7: Health Care Workforce.

Future Supply and Demand.



Physicians’ Assistants.

Future Employment.


Wild Cards.

Chapter 8: Medical Technologies.

Effects on Care.

Rational Drug Design.

Advances in Imaging.

Minimally Invasive Surgery.

Genetic Mapping and Testing.

Gene Therapy.


Artificial Blood.


Stem Cell Technologies.

Wild Cards.

Chapter 9: Information Technologies.

Will Health Care Join in the Information Age?

Base Technologies.

The Forecast: Four Big Effects in Health Care.

Progression of Information Technology into Health Care.

Wild Cards.

Chapter 10: Health Care Consumers.

The Haves and the Have-Nots.

Three Tiers of Health Care Consumers.

Forecast and Assumptions.

Wild Cards.

Chapter 11: Public Health Services.

A Challenging Future.

The History of Public Health in the United States.

Key Factors Affecting Public Health in America Today.


Public Health Frameworks and Strategies: Problems of Perception.

Reconciling Public Health and Private Medicine.

The Future: Scenarios and Forecasts.

Forecast of the Future: Organizational Issues.

Chapter 12: Mental Health.

The Hope of Science and Services.

Facing the Problem and the Facts.

Determining Priorities for Public Spending.

Change Agents in Research.

Mental Health Services Changes in the Next Decade.

Policy and Legislation.

Chapter 13: Children’s Health.

A Good Investment.

What Keeps Kids Healthy? Access and Environment.

Access to Health Services: Enough Providers?

The Impact of Environment.

Physical Environment and Increasing Chronic Illness.

How Are We Doing?

What’s in Store?

Wild Cards.

Chapter 14: Health and Health Care of America’s Seniors.

The Future Awaits Us.

The Demographics of an Aging Population.

The Economic Status of Seniors.

Health Status of Seniors.

Long-Term Care.

Elder Health Care Financing Through Medicare.


Chapter 15: Chronic Care in America.

An Evolving Crisis.

Chronically Misunderstood: The Who, When, and What of Chronic Illness.

Chronic Care Today: How We Got Here.



Chapter 16: Disease Management.

Weaving Disease Management into the Fabric of Patient Care.

Diseases Being Managed.

A Disease Management Primer.

Drivers and Barriers on the Path Ahead.


The Pace of Change.

Chapter 17: Health Behaviors.

Small Steps in the Right Direction.

Alcohol and Drug Abuse in America.

Injury Prevention: A Focus on Guns.

Tobacco Use and Health.

Wild Cards.

Chapter 18: Expanded Perspective on Health.

Beyond the Curative Model.

Definition of Health.


Socioeconomic Status as a Determinant of Health.

What’s New? Why Now?

Consumer Expectations.

Deteriorating Health Conditions.

Global Health Perspective.

The Future: Shifting Paradigms.

The Paradigm Shift: Evolution or Revolution?

Wild Cards.

The Reactions.



"This book is nonstop information in an easy-to-read, understandable format." (Journal for Healthcare Quality, 10/03)