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Nonlinear Dynamics and Predictability of Geophysical Phenomena

Nonlinear Dynamics and Predictability of Geophysical Phenomena

William I. Newman (Editor), Andrei Gabrielov (Editor), Donald L. Turcotte (Editor)

ISBN: 978-1-118-67001-9

Mar 2013, American Geophysical Union

107 pages

Select type: O-Book


Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 83.

The goal of this volume is to establish an understanding and interdisciplinary cooperation among geophysicists and nonlinear dynamicists. While the last thirty years has brought substantial progress in the study of the atmosphere and ocean as well as of convection in the Earth's mantle and core, the nonlinear revolution is only beginning to have an impact on the investigation of the solid Earth. The problem of predictability in chaotic nonlinear systems is one of the most important and difficult subjects in modern nonlinear science. In its application to geophysics and, especially, earthquake prediction, it presents both a profound intellectual problem and an issue with important societal implications.

William I. Newman, Andrei Gabrielov, Donald L. Turcotte ix

Helmut Moritz xi

1. Chaos: A Historical Perspective
Sir James Lighthill 1

2. Seismicity Modeling and Earthquake Prediction: A Review
Andrei Gabrielov and William I. Newman 7

3. Nonlinear Dynamics of the Transition from Stable Sliding to Cyclic Stick-Slip in Rock
Yaojun Gu and Teng-fong Wong 15

4. Is the Dynamics of the Lithosphere Chaotic?
Q. Li and E. Nyland 37

5. Dynamics of a Seismic Regime: Vrancea-A Case History
Cezar-Ioan Trifu and Mircea Radulian 43

6. The Precursor of Instability for Nonlinear Systems and Its Application to Earthquake
Prediction--the Load-Unload Response Ratio Theory
Xiang-chu Yin, Can Yin, and Xue-zhong Chen 55

7. Strange Attractor in Nonlinear Fluctuations of Length of the Day (LOD) Time Seies
R. K. Tiwari, J. G. Negi, and K. N. N. Rao 61

8. Self-Organized Criticality: Consequences for Statistics and Predictability of Earthquakes
Per Bak, Kim Christensen, and Zeev Olami 69

9. Period-Doubling Bifurcation and Chaotic Phenomena in a Single Degree of Freedom Elastic
System with a Two-State Variable Friction Law
Niu Zhiren and Chen Dangmin 75

10. Nonlinear Dynamic Modeling of Earthquake Prediction
Yaolin Shi, Lumin Geng, and Guomin Zhang 81

11. Methods for Improving the Prediction of Dynamical Processes with Special Reference to the
Atmospheric Circulation
Johan Grasman and Peter Houtekamer 91

12. The Nonlinear Asymptotic Stage of the Rayleigh-Taylor Instability with Wide Bubbles and
Narrowing Spikes
V. M. Cherniavski and Yu. M. Shtemler 97

13. Correlation Dimension of the Strange Attractor for Geomagnetic Field Variations
Yu. S. Tyupkin and A. Ya. Feldstein 103