Who Might Use This Book.
Substance of this Book.
Demands on Students and Instructor.
Other Approaches, Other Materials.
Prolog: A Baby Delivery Dilemma.
1. Basics and Overview.
2. Uses of Decision Analysis.
Appendix 2A: Decision Analysis Reflects on His Work.
3. Evaluating a Choice Qualitatively.
4. Quantitative Aid to Rational Choice.
Appendix 4A: Business Decision Tree Example.
Appendix 4B: Private Example: Study or Play?
5. Describing Outcomes.
6. Taking Preference Into Account.
7. Choice Under Uncertainty.
Appendix 7A. Technical Notes.
8. Decision Aiding Strategy.
Appendix 8A. Influence Sketches.
9. Aiding the Professional Decider.
Appendix 9A. Environmental Regulation Case Study.
10. Assessing and Inferring Probabilities.
11. Eliciting Preferences.
12. Applied Term Project.
Appendix 12A. Student Project Report.
Glossary of Concepts and Terms.
"…a well-written textbook aimed at helping students make better personal and professional decisions…the techniques in the book are worthy of study." (MAA Reviews, April 8, 2006)
"...the book presents an insight on the practical application of decision analysis in the private and public sector." (EADM Bulletin, Autumn 2005)
"...an excellent resource for any organization or as a textbook for decision-making courses in a variety of fields, including public policy, business management, and systems engineering." (SirReadaLot.org)
Beginning with basics, the text advances progressively, enabling readers to develop and then use more sophisticated decision-making skills that can be applied in both public and private enterprise, including:
- Modelling decision making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives
- Risk analysis and risk assessment
- Facilitating group decision making
- Making personal life choices and political judgments
- Economic analysis of competitive and strategic decisions
- An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department.