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Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, 2nd Edition

Hardcover

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Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, 2nd Edition

Marvin Rausand, Stein Haugen

ISBN: 978-1-119-37723-8 April 2020 784 Pages

Hardcover
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$160.00
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Description

Featuring an introduction to risk assessment that utilizes key theory and state-of-the-art applications, this Second Edition discusses the key theory, methods, and applications of risk assessment and has been updated to align the book with ISO 31000 and other new and updated standards. The book begins with an introduction of risk analysis, assessment and management. A new section on the history of risk analysis is included. Next, the authors cover hazards and threats, how to measure and evaluate risk, and risk management, with new sections on risk governance and risk-informed decision making. The book contains new sections on combining accident theories and criteria for evaluating data sources, as well as a section on subjective probabilities. Risk assessment process is covered, as well as new sections on establishing the context, planning, and preparing, risk identification, risk analysis, and risk evaluation. Safe job analysis and computing semi-quantitative methods are now covered. Barrier management and HRA methods for offshore application are also discussed in this new edition. The book contains new chapters on dynamic risk analysis and life-cycle use of risk. As supplement to the book, a booklet of problems and a booklet with solutions to the problems have also been developed.

Preface vii

Acknowledgments xi

1 Introduction 1

1.1 Risk in Our Modern Society 1

1.2 Important Trends 2

1.3 Major Accidents 4

1.4 History of Risk Assessment 4

1.5 Applications of Risk Assessment 8

1.6 Objectives, Scope, and Delimitation 9

1.7 Problems 11

References 12

2 The Words of Risk Analysis 15

2.1 Introduction 15

2.2 Risk 16

2.3 What Can Go Wrong? 20

2.4 What is the Likelihood? 36

2.5 What are the Consequences? 42

2.6 Additional Terms 47

2.7 Problems 52

References 53

3 Main Elements of Risk Assessment 57

3.1 Introduction 57

3.2 Risk Assessment Process 58

3.3 Risk Assessment Report 74

3.4 Risk Assessment in Safety Legislation 78

3.5 Validity and Quality Aspects of a Risk Assessment 79

3.6 Problems 80

References 80

4 Study Object and Limitations 83

4.1 Introduction 83

4.2 Study Object 83

4.3 Operating Context 87

4.4 System Modeling and Analysis 88

4.5 Complexity 91

4.6 Problems 93

References 93

5 Risk Acceptance 97

5.1 Introduction 97

5.2 Risk Acceptance Criteria 98

5.3 Approaches to Establishing Risk Acceptance Criteria 104

5.4 Risk Acceptance Criteria for Other Assets than Humans 111

5.5 Closure 112

5.6 Problems 112

References 113

6 Measuring Risk 117

6.1 Introduction 117

6.2 Risk Metrics 117

6.3 Measuring Risk to People 119

6.4 Risk Matrices 142

6.5 Reduction in Life Expectancy 148

6.6 Choice and Use of Risk Metrics 150

6.7 Risk Metrics for Other Assets 152

6.8 Problems 153

References 156

7 Risk Management 159

7.1 Introduction 159

7.2 Scope, Context, and Criteria 162

7.3 Risk Assessment 162

7.4 Risk Treatment 162

7.5 Communication and Consultation 163

7.6 Monitoring and Review 165

7.7 Recording and Reporting 166

7.8 Stakeholders 166

7.9 Risk and Decision-Making 167

7.10 Safety Legislation 170

7.11 Problems 171

References 171

8 Accident Models 175

8.1 Introduction 175

8.2 Accident Classification 176

8.3 Accident Investigation 180

8.4 Accident Causation 180

8.5 Accident Models 182

8.6 Energy and Barrier Models 186

8.7 Sequential Accident Models 188

8.8 Epidemiological Accident Models 193

8.9 Event Causation and Sequencing Models 200

8.10 Systemic Accident Models 205

8.11 Combining Accident Models 218

8.12 Problems 219

References 220

9 Data for Risk Analysis 225

9.1 Types of Data 225

9.2 Quality and Applicability of Data 228

9.3 Data Sources 229

9.4 Expert Judgment 240

9.5 Data Dossier 243

9.6 Problems 245

References 246

10 Hazard Identification 249

10.1 Introduction 249

10.2 Checklist Methods 255

10.3 Preliminary Hazard Analysis 257

10.4 Job Safety Analysis 267

10.5 FMECA 278

10.6 HAZOP 285

10.7 STPA 296

10.8 SWIFT 306

10.9 Comparing Semi-Quantitative Methods 312

10.10 Master Logic Diagram 312

10.11 Change Analysis 314

10.12 Hazard Log 317

10.13 Problems 319

References 324

11 Causal and Frequency Analysis 327

11.1 Introduction 327

11.2 Cause and Effect Diagram Analysis 329

11.3 Fault Tree Analysis 332

11.4 Bayesian Networks 356

11.5 Markov Methods 369

11.6 Problems 381

References 384

12 Development of Accident Scenarios 387

12.1 Introduction 387

12.2 Event Tree Analysis 388

12.3 Event Sequence Diagrams 407

12.4 Cause-Consequence Analysis 408

12.5 Hybrid Causal Logic 408

12.6 Escalation Problems 409

12.7 Consequence Models 409

12.8 Problems 411

References 414

13 Dependent Failures and Events 417

13.1 Introduction 417

13.2 Dependent Failures and Events 418

13.3 Dependency in Accident Scenarios 420

13.4 Cascading Failures 421

13.5 Common-Cause Failures 421

13.6 Beta-Factor Model 430

13.7 Binomial Failure Rate Model 435

13.8 Multiple Greek Letter Model 436

13.9 Alpha-Factor Model 438

13.10 Multiple Beta-Factor Model 439

13.11 Problems 440

References 440

14 Barriers and Barrier Analysis 443

14.1 Introduction 443

14.2 Barriers and Barrier Classification 444

14.3 Barrier Management 450

14.4 Barrier Properties 453

14.5 Safety-Instrumented Systems 454

14.6 Hazard-Barrier Matrices 464

14.7 Safety Barrier Diagrams 465

14.8 Bow-tie Diagrams 466

14.9 Energy Flow/Barrier Analysis 466

14.10 Layer of Protection Analysis 469

14.11 Barrier and Operational Risk Analysis 477

14.12 Systematic Identification and Evaluation of Risk Reduction Measures 486

14.13 Problems 491

References 493

15 Human Reliability Analysis 499

15.1 Introduction 499

15.2 Task Analysis 509

15.3 Human Error Identification 516

15.4 HRA Methods 522

15.5 Problems 544

References 545

16 Risk Analysis and Management for Operation 549

16.1 Introduction 549

16.2 Decisions About Risk 551

16.3 Aspects of Risk to Consider 553

16.4 Risk Indicators 555

16.5 Risk Modeling 563

16.6 Operational Risk Analysis – Updating the QRA 565

16.7 MIRMAP 567

16.8 Problems 569

References 570

17 Security Assessment 573

17.1 Introduction 573

17.2 Main Elements of Security Assessment 576

17.3 Industrial Control and Safety Systems 582

17.4 Security Assessment 584

17.5 Security Assessment Methods 592

17.6 Application Areas 593

17.7 Problems 594

References 594

18 Life Cycle Use of Risk Analysis 597

18.1 Introduction 597

18.2 Phases in the Life Cycle 598

18.3 Comments Applicable to all Phases 599

18.4 Feasibility and Concept Selection 600

18.5 Preliminary Design 601

18.6 Detailed Design and Construction 602

18.7 Operation and Maintenance 603

18.8 Major Modifications 604

18.9 Decommissioning and Removal 605

18.10 Problems 605

References 605

19 Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis 609

19.1 Introduction 609

19.2 Uncertainty 611

19.3 Categories of Uncertainty 612

19.4 Contributors to Uncertainty 614

19.5 Uncertainty Propagation 619

19.6 Sensitivity Analysis 624

19.7 Problems 626

References 626

20 Development and Applications of Risk Assessment 629

20.1 Introduction 629

20.2 Defense and Defense Industry 630

20.3 Nuclear Power Industry 632

20.4 Process Industry 635

20.5 Offshore Oil and Gas Industry 639

20.6 Space Industry 642

20.7 Aviation 644

20.8 Railway Transport 646

20.9 Marine Transport 647

20.10 Machinery Systems 650

20.11 Food Safety 651

20.12 Other Application Areas 653

20.13 Closure 656

References 657

A Elements of Probability Theory 663

A.1 Introduction 663

A.2 Outcomes and Events 663

A.3 Probability 667

A.4 Random Variables 672

A.5 Some Specific Distributions 679

A.6 Point and Interval Estimation 688

A.7 Bayesian Approach 692

A.8 Probability of Frequency Approach 694

References 699

Author Index 707

Subject Index 711